This is a reminder for:
Title: Kem Gemes
“Probability and Confirmation”
What is the relationship between probability and confirmation? Carnap and
modern Bayesians, among others, have claimed that confirmation should
simply be identified as probabilistic favourable relevance. In other
words, evidence e confirms hypothesis h if and only if the probability of h
given e is greater than the probability of h in the absence of e.
Conversely, evidence e is irrelevant to h when the probability of h given e
is identical to the prior probability of h without e. This paper shows
through examples that this yields unsatisfactory accounts of the intuitive
notion s of confirmation and irrelevance. To determine the relationship
between confirmation, irrelevance, and probability we need to first gain a
better understanding of logical content. With such an understanding in
hand we can then define more fine grained notions of confirmation and
irrelevance in probabilistic terms in a way that captures our intuitive
notions of confirmation and irrelevance. It is further shown that this
better understanding of logical content allows for a definition of the long
problematic notion of empirical significance. This further allows us to see
why attempts to define empirical significance in terms of confirmation
relations are fundamentally misguided.
When: Mon 1 Aug 13:00 – 14:30 Eastern Time - Melbourne, Sydney
Where: University of Sydney S422
Calendar: [email protected]
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Event details:
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