<<<<<<<<<<<
There has been essentially no significant improvement in the last two
decades. My only conclusion is that EPO has little effect on a distance
that short.
Paul >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes and No ... At the time (1979 and 1981) Coe's 800m records were
considered far out of reach for the rest of the world. So, while they have
been beaten by only .49 and .62 this is a significant margin of improvement
on such a mark. The 1500m record around that time was Ovett's 3:31.36 in
1980 (can't remember who broke it before Cram's 3:29.67 in 1985 ... and I
don't have the internet to check it). The 1:41.73 WR was considered the
toughest record in the middle and long distances.
But, the point is this: Many men had come within 1.2 seconds of Ovett's new
3:31, including Coe, Walker, Wessinghage, Bayi, etc. ... but, how far ahead
of the rest of the world was Coe's 1:41.73? Nobody was within 1.5 seconds.
In 1980, nobody ran under 1:44 on a regular basis ... 1984 was really the
watershed year with Jones, Gray, Cruz and Koskei breaking into the All-time
list and running several 1:42-43's. The all-time performances list has been
overhauled rather thoroughly (albeit mostly by one man) since then. I am
betting that you don't see many 1980's runners before Rodal (#18) either.
1 1.41,11 Wilson Kipketer DEN 70-12-12 1 Köln
1997-08-24
2 1.41,24 Wilson Kipketer DEN 70-12-12 1rA Zürich
1997-08-13
3 1.41,73 Sebastian Coe GBR 56-09-29 1 Florens
1981-06-10
4 1.41,73 Wilson Kipketer DEN 70-12-12 1 Stockholm
1997-07-07
5 1.41,77 Joaquim Cruz BRA 63-03-12 1 Köln
1984-08-26
6 1.41,83 Wilson Kipketer DEN 70-12-12 1 Rieti
1996-09-01
7 1.42,17 Wilson Kipketer DEN 70-12-12 1 Tokyo
1996-09-16
8 1.42,20 Wilson Kipketer DEN 70-12-12 1 Bruxelles
1997-08-22
9 1.42,27 Wilson Kipketer DEN 70-12-12 1 Bruxelles
1999-09-03
10 1.42,28 Sammy Koskei KEN 61-05-14 2 Köln
1984-08-26
My opinion of this theory is that EPO is less of a contributor to
performance enhancement because 800m performance depends much less on
Aerobic capacity than the 1500m (and EPO only directly boosts Aerobic
capacity).
I have seen more in-depth analyses of record progressions for the 800-10000m
that supposedly prove an equal performance improvement over all the middle
and long distances.
However, if you assume that most (or all) of the improvements to the WR's in
the 800-10000m are due to EPO over the last 8-10 years ... then the 10k
improved 46 seconds (27:08 to 26:22) or 1.84 seconds a lap, and the 5k
improved about 19 seconds (12:58 - 12:39) or 1.52 seconds per lap.
If EPO use could yield exactly proportionate gains in the 800m/1500m
(compared to the longer distances), you would expect a 6.9 second
improvement in the 1500m and a 3.68 second improvement in the 800.
This kind of improvement (the same percentage gains) would put the WR's
somewhere around 1:38.05 and 3:22.77 for the 800/1500. Clearly, if you are
assuming the above explanation, then the drug is more "helpful" in terms of
gross improvement in seconds in the longer races. The physiological
capacities boosted by EPO (VO2max) are clearly less significant in the
800m/1500m than they are for the 5k/10k.
One can see this clearly by the amount of relative improvement between the
two Olympic distances, 5k/10k: 1.84 secs a lap and 1.52 secs a lap. Both
are distance races, yet the shorter one has improved much less in an
absolute sense since 1990. Most people would agree that the WR's for the 5
and 10 in 1990 were fairly equal (12:58 and 27:08) ... whether these WR's
COULD have been influenced by EPO is an entirely different debate (and if
you use WR's from long before the age of EPO, it only strengthens the
argument that the drug has much smaller effects on the shorter distances).
Similar to the fact that most of the sub-27:00 10k's have been run by three
men, yet the all-time list has been completely re-written since 1990, and
most of the sub 12:50's have been run by three men, yet that list too is
completely re-written since 1990 ... the 800m all-time list has been
severely overhauled for the top-50 performances in the last ten years, but
the performances have been racked up by very few people.
-----Original Message-----
From: P.F.Talbot [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Sent: Wednesday, October 25, 2000 1:18 PM
To: Justin Clouder
Cc: 'T&F List'
Subject: RE: t-and-f: Trivia: why not much improvement?
On Wed, 25 Oct 2000, Justin Clouder wrote:
> > 1:42.28 Sam Koskei KEN Cologne 260884
> Indeed it is. I thought it surprising that, despite the Kenyan advances in
> recent years, the national 800m record is 16 years old. Having said that,
> it's a very very good record, set when second to Joaquim Cruz's 1:41.77 WR
> near-miss after the LA games. At the time it was the 3rd fastest ever run
-
> even faster than Coe's 1:42.33 WR from 1979.
I think the real interesting question is why has the 800m record been
immune to the large leaps that we have seen in the 1500 meters and up?
There has been essentially no significant improvement in the last two
decades. My only conclusion is that EPO has little effect on a distance
that short.
Paul
*******************************
Paul Talbot
Department of Geography/
Institute of Behavioral Science
University of Colorado, Boulder
Boulder CO 80309-0260
(303) 492-3248
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
