Hi All
I don't really disagree with a lot of what Brian says here, except for this
sentence:
> I don't know whether the current limits are 27:40 or 26:58 or
> something else ... but it is not 26:22.
>
How can you possible 'know' this? Every few years for the last century or so
some scientist has popped up with a very legitimate argument that human
limits are being reached even as he writes. Every generation of fans and
commentators is convinced that it's at THIS point in time that limits MUST
be reached. And every generation of fans and commentators is laughed at by
the next generation for their arrogance.
Why? Why is it that we believe the limits are being reached NOW, not in ten
years or twenty years but NOW.
Back in 1885 or so an English guy named Walter George ran around 4:12 for
the mile. Many eminent commentators, doctors and scientists proclaimed that
the limit of human performance had been reached and no man would ever run
faster than Walter George. Er.....3:43 and falling anyone?
I will believe that limits are being reached when:
1. I am sure that the whole human gene pool has been explored.
At the moment the vast majority of the world's population is either too poor
or too oppressed to compete. Only in the West can we really say that the
potential of the population is even close to being pushed - the vast
majority of Africa, South America and the Indian sub-continent's gene pools
have not even been scratched yet.
2. Records have been static for a long time, or are broken only infrequently
and by tiny margins.
There is no slowing of this among the men at least. Even 8.90, 43.29 and
1:41.73 proved to be merely ahead of their time, not absolutes. I see no
reason to view 26:22 any differently.
3. I'm convinced that doping is more widespread now than in years gone by.
For Brian's thesis to be accurate, every one of the athletes currently
re-defining distance standards must be a drug cheat. Brian Kennedy
(also-ran) is now faster than Said Aouita (all time great ten years ago)
was. Are we saying Kennedy is a cheat, or is it equally likely that, as
thresholds are constantly re-defined, what was previously an impassible
barrier (for 13:00 5k read 10.0 100m, 27:00 for 10k or 4:00 mile) suddenly
becomes commonplace. Remember, this is not re-defining of limits by one or
two individuals. The winners aren't winning by any more than they used to,
standards are rising across the board. My impression is that this rise is
directly proportionate to the rise in participation in countries and regions
who have not previously had the opportunity to contribute to the world's
onward improvement in athletic achievement.
In no way is the 'limits' argument necessary or useful for supporting claims
of widespread drug use. Great athletes and great eras have always come and
gone and have always re-defined what was possible. Try telling people
watching Coe and Ovett in 79-81 that the mile and 1500m WRs would be 4-5
seconds faster than they ran. Try telling people watching Carl Lewis run
9.99 in 1984 that just 12 years later that time would leave him a metre
short of a medal. Was their dominance explicable only by drugs? Not in
retrospect. In retrospect we see great athletes re-defining what was
possible. In the future, when admiring a 26:00 10k by a young Ethiopian who
grew up idolising Geb, we'll say the same of Geb, Komen, Tergat et al.
Justin
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