Tom:
I don't have the stats, but I wonder what happens when you slice the data a
little differently. Set the cut off at 2:12 or near there. I would suspect
that you would find that the total number of marathoners who better that
mark has increased slightly and most are from the few regions of the world
with a high altitude ancestry or gene flow with Africa. Considering how few
runners there are in total from these athletic hotspots, it is extraordinary
how they are crowded into the very top finishing places.
So that would suggest that genes plays a role at the very super elite level.
My guess would be that the number of sub super-elite marathoners who are not
from those regions and run -- say 2:15-2:25 -- has dropped significantly
for cultural reason:
They know that their chances of cracking into the super elite is a long
shot. Certainly, there is enough human variation for it to happen and
serendipity, as well as training, plays a huge role (far more than in the
sprints, for instance).
The chances of an African American making it into the NBA is about 1 in 3500
or so. The chances of a white is about 1 in 95,000. As one would expect,
very talented whites who might, if life broke their way, make it into the
NBA peel away long before they have a chance to test whether they have the
physical and mental attributes to make it. I would expect that the same
thing is happening in distance running... Some potentially super elite
whites are deciding to say, become a biker, because they look around them
and all the stars are from Kenya, Ethiopia, ettc.
If people were a little more educated about body type profiles and
physiology, I believe far fewer talented athletes would peel away from
sports or events in which they are emminently suited for.
In summary, to conclude that difference at the very very top are "cultural"
may not be supported by the weight of the evidence.
Do you have any figures comparing sub 2:12, or even sub 2:10. Has that
number decreased?
On 4/24/01 2:47 PM, "t-and-f-digest"
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Tom Derderian wrote:
> Boston 1981, Winning times were similar, But back in 50th place Matsuo
> of
> Japan went 2:18:45. The last sub 2:20 was Gerry Deegan of Ireland in
> 64th.
> The last sub 2:20 this year was Mark Coogan in 19th place. But in 1981
> I
> considered myself in bad shape and only participated in the race with a
> 2:26:46 in 191st place too far back among Americas to count or even
> score on
> the Greater Boston team. That time in 2001 would have been about what
> Danny
> Reed ran for 35th place overall and 7th American.
>
> Those are the numbers. That difference IS cultural. The interesting
> question is why.
--
Jon Entine
RuffRun
6178 Grey Rock Rd.
Agoura Hills, CA 91301
(818) 991-9803 [FAX] 991-9804
http://www.jonentine.com
--
Jon Entine
RuffRun
6178 Grey Rock Rd.
Agoura Hills, CA 91301
(818) 991-9803 [FAX] 991-9804
http://www.jonentine.com
