Thanks, Joel! For more real world examples see the wikipedia entry for the Planning Fallacy <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy>.
On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 1:15 PM, Kevin Smith <[email protected]> wrote: > I would also be interested in cost overrun comparisons with other > *international* projects. I mean, that has to add to the confusion and > unpredictability, right? > > The chunnel came in at 80% over budget, according to wikipedia. > > > Kevin Smith > Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation > > > On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:33 AM, Arthur Richards <[email protected] > > wrote: > >> Fascinating, Joel, thanks for the share! >> >> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:24 AM, Joel Aufrecht <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >>> The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing all >>>> other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average overruns >>>> of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36 percent; >>>> rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107 percent. >>>> >>> >>> (according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at >>> the Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>) >>> >>> (source >>> <http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/> >>> ) >>> >> >> Worth noting that the study looked ONLY at sports-related costs and >> excluded larger projects (eg infrastructure): >> >> The numbers cover the period 1960-2016 and include only sports-related >>> costs, i.e., wider capital costs for general infrastructure, which are >>> often larger than sports-related costs, have been excluded. >> >> >> I am curious what the average overruns would like if all >> Olympics-related costs (eg infrastructure, etc) were included. >> >> -- >> Arthur Richards >> Sr. Agile Coach: Organizational Collaboration >> Team Practices Group >> <https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Team_Practices_Group> >> [[User:Awjrichards]] >> IRC: awjr >> +1-415-839-6885 x6687 >> >> _______________________________________________ >> teampractices mailing list >> [email protected] >> https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices >> >> > > _______________________________________________ > teampractices mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices > >
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