http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/
On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 2:25 PM, Grace Gellerman <[email protected]> wrote: > Thanks, Joel! > > For more real world examples see the wikipedia entry for the Planning > Fallacy <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy>. > > > On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 1:15 PM, Kevin Smith <[email protected]> wrote: > >> I would also be interested in cost overrun comparisons with other >> *international* projects. I mean, that has to add to the confusion and >> unpredictability, right? >> >> The chunnel came in at 80% over budget, according to wikipedia. >> >> >> Kevin Smith >> Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation >> >> >> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:33 AM, Arthur Richards < >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Fascinating, Joel, thanks for the share! >>> >>> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:24 AM, Joel Aufrecht <[email protected] >>> > wrote: >>> >>>> The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing all >>>>> other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average >>>>> overruns >>>>> of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36 percent; >>>>> rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107 percent. >>>>> >>>> >>>> (according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at >>>> the Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>) >>>> >>>> (source >>>> <http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/> >>>> ) >>>> >>> >>> Worth noting that the study looked ONLY at sports-related costs and >>> excluded larger projects (eg infrastructure): >>> >>> The numbers cover the period 1960-2016 and include only sports-related >>>> costs, i.e., wider capital costs for general infrastructure, which are >>>> often larger than sports-related costs, have been excluded. >>> >>> >>> I am curious what the average overruns would like if all >>> Olympics-related costs (eg infrastructure, etc) were included. >>> >>> -- >>> Arthur Richards >>> Sr. Agile Coach: Organizational Collaboration >>> Team Practices Group >>> <https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Team_Practices_Group> >>> [[User:Awjrichards]] >>> IRC: awjr >>> +1-415-839-6885 x6687 >>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> teampractices mailing list >>> [email protected] >>> https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices >>> >>> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> teampractices mailing list >> [email protected] >> https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices >> >> > > _______________________________________________ > teampractices mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/teampractices > >
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