Steve Herber wrote:
> I wonder if there is another possibility.  We had two events occur at
> about the same time.  The DNS change and the huge jump in registered
> servers after the last Slashdot article.

There isn't a huge jump in registered servers; just a 50% increase in 
the server pool in the past 90 days. Which is great, but it doesn't 
explain why I see a 30% increase in my traffic rather than the 6000% I'd 
expected.

> We have a nice graph showing the size of the server pool,
> http://www.pool.ntp.org/zone/@ .  It would be nice to have a similar
> graph showing the client pool.  Alternatively, a graph of DNS queries
> would show some interesting data.

It'd be awesome to get some data about our client population. It's a bit 
tricky, both because NTP doesn't tell you much about the clients and 
because of the odd sampling our pool servers sees. We could learn 
something by analyzing DNS requests, but DNS caching means you've got a 
very limited view.

I think the most important thing to characterize is client population 
size. IP address is a reasonable proxy for unique clients, at least for 
tracking growth. Does anyone have a graph of unique IPs their server has 
seen for the last year or more?


I've done some characterization of client traffic before by looking at 
packet traffic on my server. Unfortunately I have nothing longitudinal; 
just short studies at specific times. Here's a brief comparison 
statistics between righit now and when I pulled stats from my server in 
November 2005


*November 2005 (average values over 70 days of data)*

400 servers in pool
1.2 million requests / day
10,000 different IPs / day
top 10 IPs accounted for 13% of requests

*September 25, 2007 (single day)*

1400 servers in pool
1.4 million requests / day
26,811 different IPs / day
top 10 IPs accounted for 9% of requests

*Summary*

We've got 3.5x as many servers as in November 2005.

My server saw 1.1x more requests / day since November 2005, suggesting 
server pool growth has kept up with client usage.

Different IPs / day has gone up 2.5x, suggesting our client pool has 
expanded significantly.

Note my single day sample from September 25 isn't necessarily 
representative. Sep 24 I served 1.2 million requests from 18,500 IPs. 
Sep 26 I served 2 million requests from 100,000 different IPs. I had a 
big spike on the 26th, I think related to joining the 100Mbps pool.

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