Previously, Nancy Melucci had written:
> I am wondering if we have an empirical basis (research of some type)
> for the claim that high school GPAs are inflated.

There are a few problems with this though one might think that
someone was evaluating this on an ongoing basis and would be
publishing the results in peer reviewed journals.  

The first problem is how does one define grade inflation.  At
the college level one relatively straightforward:way appears to
be to do "transcript studies" which examine changes in
college GPAs over decades. On the web, there are a few sources 
that focus on this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grade_inflation
http://www.gradeinflation.com/
As the Wikipedia entry mentions (about the 3rd paragraph in),
comparable data for high schools was not available when
transcript surveys were made in the 1990s.

To measure grade inflation in high school, another way to assess 
grade inflation is to compare high school GPA (HS-GPA) relative 
to performance on a standardized test.such as the SAT or ACT
(under the assumption that the SAT is a better measure of 
intrinsic ability [or what some may have once called "native 
intelligence"] to do college level work; this is consistent with the 
original claim that the SAT was a "Scholastic Aptitiude Test" 
before researchers realized that it probably didn't purely measure)

For example, imagine taking a test like the ACT, dividing
these scores into 10 equal parts (deciles), and then looking at the 
distribution of HS-GPA across deciles.  There should be a positive
correlation between HS-GPA and ACT scores.  The distribution
of HS-GPA should also be similar to the distribution of ACT
scores.  If one searches the ERIC database, one will find one or
two reports from the ACT testing corporation which report that
grade inflation was found using this type of method.  I haven't 
bothered to read these reports but it should be obvious that there 
are various problems with this type of research.  First, the apparent 
conflict of interst of the person conducting the research (apparently 
ACT sponsored the research and an ACT research person did the
analysis; remember this when reading comparable reports by either
ETS or the College Board).  Second, if the students who took the 
ACT did so in order to apply to college (in contrast to sampling 
students at random from high schools and administering the ACT to 
them), then there is sample selection bias because the students self-
select themselves to take the test.  Third, high school dropouts
(attrition) are not included in this type of analysis.  What role
does differential loss of students (i.e., losing more lower HS-GPA
students than high HS-GPA) have on HS-GPA?

Another way of estimating inflation in HS-GPA is to do a
transcript study like that done for colleges.  As it  turns out,
the National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP) has
conducted such a study examining 2005 high school graduates.
The executive summary and complete report is available at:
http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/pubs/studies/2007467.asp

A relevant statements from the summary include the following:

|Transcripts were collected from about 640 public schools and 
|80 private schools for the 2005 High School Transcript Study (HSTS). 
|These transcripts constituted a nationally representative sample 
|of 26,000 high school graduates, representing approximately 2.7 million 
|2005 high school graduates.

|Graduates earn more credits and achieve higher GPAs
|
|    * In 2005, graduates earned about three credits more than 
|their 1990 counterparts, or about 360 additional hours of instruction 
|during their high school careers.
|    * In 2005, the overall grade point average (GPA) was approximately 
|a third of a letter grade higher than in 1990. There are many possible 
|reasons for this apparent increase, including "grade inflation," changes 
|in grading standards and practices, and growth in student performance.

|Because the study is restricted to high school graduates, it contains 
|no information about dropouts who may differ from graduates. Graduates 
|who receive a special education diploma or certificate of completion 
|are also excluded from analyses in this report unless noted otherwise.

So, is there grade inflation in the above study or not?  Is "a third of a
letter grade" relative to 1990 really what we mean by HS-GPA grade
inflation?  And how would the inclusion of dropouts and other special
cases affect overall HS-GPA?

NOTE:  The above are aggregate results based on 720 high schools.
There is probbably significant school-to-school variation, with some
schools probably having significant amounts of grade inflation but with
other having limited grade inflation.  Local factors need to be taken
into account but perhaps grade inflation is not as obvious as some may
think.

-Mike Palij
New York University
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

 


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