I always wrestle with the idea that these statistics may be comparing apples to oranges, in a way. It might make more sense to compare the risks of being in a car crash with the risks of being in a plane crash. Then compare what your chances of surviving a car crash are with the chances of your surviving a plane crash. I'd estimate that the numbers would look a lot different. Beth Benoit Granite State College Plymouth State University New Hampshire
On Wed, Mar 25, 2009 at 3:38 PM, Maxwell Gwynn <mgw...@wlu.ca> wrote: > > > I'm not an expert on Risk Assessment, but it would seem to me that when > people were considering the riskiness of traveling by car versus by air, > they would have been likely to consider that (after September 11) there had > recently been four commercial flights in which all passengers had been > killed. The NSC data would not have included this information in their data > base. > > I don't think that the possibility/probability of further terrorist > hijackings would be independent of the incidence of recent terrorist > hijackings, and so wouldn't people be making a conditional risk calculation? > That is, the comparison would not be Probability of dying in a car crash > versus Probability of dying in a plane crash (37:1), but rather Probability > of dying in a car crash in the next few days of traveling versus Probability > of dying in a plane crash in the next few days of traveling *given that*there > had been recent terrorist hijackings of commercial flights (??:1). > > What I'm getting at is that the increase in car travel was not necessarily > all a result of the "dread risk" phenomenon, but also included some novel > calculations of relative risks based on reality rather than overreaction. > > -Max > > > Maxwell Gwynn, PhD > Psychology Department > Wilfrid Laurier University > 519-884-0710 ext 3854 > mgw...@wlu.ca > > >>> "Frantz, Sue" sfra...@highline.edu> 3/25/2009 11:51 AM > >>> >><sfra...@highline.edu%3e+3/25/2009+11%3A51+AM+%3E%3E> > Bungled Risk Assessment and Tragic Road > Trips<http://www.ricksteves.com/blog/index.cfm?fuseaction=entry&entryID=333> > > Fearing dying in a terrorist airplane crash because the September 11 > events were so prominent in our memories, we reduced our air travel and > increased our automobile travel, leading to a significantly great number of > fatal traffic accidents than usual. It is estimated that about 1,600 more > people needlessly died in these traffic accidents (Gigerenzer, 2006). These > lives could have been saved had we not reacted to the dread risk as we did. > We just do not seem to realize that it is far safer to fly than to drive. > National Safety Council data reveal that you are 37 times more likely to die > in a vehicle accident than on a commercial flight." > > - > > --- > To make changes to your subscription contact: > > Bill Southerly (bsouthe...@frostburg.edu) > > --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly (bsouthe...@frostburg.edu)
