Athletes perceive a "hot hand" and may adapt passing and other strategy decisions based on their belief (which I think this article provided evidence for in volleyball players). But the belief in a hot hand does not mean that the belief is valid.
Evidence for a hot hand (in basketball or other sports) would be that the probability of scoring after a success at scoring (i.e., when one is "hot" or "in the groove") is higher than the probability of scoring after a failed attempt. There is ample evidence in basketball that the probability of making a free throw following a successful free throw attempt is not different than the player's base rate probability of making a successful free throw. See Gilovich, Vallone, & Tversky (1985), who examined free throw success in players for the Philadelphia 76ers, the Boston Celtics, and the men's and women's varsity basketball teams at Cornell. (The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 17, 295-314) Based on the abstract of the volleyball article, I don't see any data analysis about these probabilities for success in scoring. Instead, the findings describe changes in team choices regarding decisions for player placements based on the belief that a give player is now "hot." Evidence for the cognitive error. Not evidence that the error is not really erroneous. Claudia J. Stanny, Ph.D. Director Center for University Teaching, Learning, and Assessment Associate Professor School of Psychological and Behavioral Sciences University of West Florida 11000 University Parkway Pensacola, FL 32514 – 5751 Phone: (850) 857-6355 or 473-7435 csta...@uwf.edu CUTLA Web Site: http://uwf.edu/cutla/ Personal Web Pages: http://uwf.edu/cstanny/website/index.htm --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5&n=T&l=tips&o=13653 or send a blank email to leave-13653-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
