I like Stephen's artillery analogy. My point was even simpler, that we cannot rule out the possibility of a hot-hand on a priori grounds by assuming independence between successive shots the way that successive coin tosses are (tossed from a mechanical tosser; there MAY be ways to bias a human's coin toss); hence if an empirical demonstration is found, we wouldn't say "impossible" the way we would with coin tosses.
========================== John W. Kulig, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology Coordinator, University Honors Plymouth State University Plymouth NH 03264 ========================== ----- Original Message ----- From: sbl...@ubishops.ca To: "Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)" <tips@fsulist.frostburg.edu> Sent: Tuesday, October 25, 2011 10:23:27 PM Subject: Re: [tips] JEP: The hot hand exists in volleyball On 24 Oct 2011 at 23:29, John Kulig wrote: > I was always skeptical about the initial findings from basketball. > Or to clarify, I am not surprised a hot-hand COULD be established > statistically. To move to the area of evidence-free speculation, it seems to me that there are reasonable grounds to expect that a hot hand could be a real, verifiable phenomenon, but only under specific circumstances. The circumstances are that the skill involved requires repetitive performance, and precise control of eye-muscle coordination. Examples where it would be expected might include golf drives, tennis serves, vollyball, and, especially, free throws in basketball. My analogy is firing an artillery shell at a distant target. The first shots of the gunner miss the target. But with each shot, he adjusts the aim, shifting it slightly to one side, and elevating or lowering the gun slightly. But once the shells start hitting the target, the gunner does what he did before and gets the same result. So it may be with free throws in basketball. Once you succeed, you have the information about aim and muscle coordination which will allow you to reproduce your success. Just do what you did before and you've got it again. Ergo, you have a hot hand. Eventually, your muscles tire, your aim drifts off target, and you start missing again. But a success can bring it back for a while. So, like John, I'm not surprised that a hot-hand could be established. I'm more surprised that it hasn't been found (accepting Claudia Stanny's critique of the JEP study). Stephen -------------------------------------------- Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology, Emeritus Bishop's University Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada e-mail: sblack at ubishops.ca --------------------------------------------- --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: ku...@mail.plymouth.edu. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13338.f659d005276678c0696b7f6beda66454&n=T&l=tips&o=13667 or send a blank email to leave-13667-13338.f659d005276678c0696b7f6beda66...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5&n=T&l=tips&o=13676 or send a blank email to leave-13676-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
