Nice replies (Jim C, Karl W and Mike P and others ..) so I won't repeat what has been said except to note - as a tangent to the original posts - that in some of my classes I spend time with the "relative risk" Karl W discusses. I use the example of aspirin and MI (heart attack) in the 1988 (New England Journal of Med?? if I remember) article of 22,000+ physicians who took aspirin vs. placebo. My chi square calculated on their frequencies reveal p < .01, yet the risk of MI only drops from 1.7% to .9% in the sample over the years studied. As an absolute value, the % decrease is very small, but expressed as relative risk we can say we cut the risk in half. Of course, any "significant" decrease will be championed as the stakes are very high with MI .. and sometimes high with flu as well ..
At any rate, I got MY flu shot! So I am OK. p < .05 :-) ========================== John W. Kulig, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology Coordinator, University Honors Plymouth State University Plymouth NH 03264 ========================== ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jim Clark" <j.cl...@uwinnipeg.ca> To: "Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)" <tips@fsulist.frostburg.edu> Sent: Tuesday, January 15, 2013 3:14:29 PM Subject: Re: [tips] Flu vaccine and p.6 level of significance Hi I see figures that are considerably higher than the 2.7% reported by Karl (although I did see that figure as well). The CDC appears to be saying between 5 and 20%. Whatever the average, of course, different groups of people could have varying values around that average AND the consequences (death in some cases) could differ markedly for different groups. Also relevant is the fact that the flu shot appears to be protective for some heart conditions. See http://science.howstuffworks.com/life/human-biology/flu-heart.htm Here in Manitoba, Canada (a socialist country I know) flu shots have been free for young and old people for some years and are now free for everyone who wants one. Here are statistics by province for percent of population getting shot and percent getting flu (r = -.598). http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/05/10/bc-flu-vaccine-report.html Again, percent getting flu is quite a bit higher than single digit: average = 14.22 (including of course those getting shot). Take care Jim James M. Clark Professor & Chair of Psychology j.cl...@uwinnipeg.ca Room 4L41A 204-786-9757 204-774-4134 Fax Dept of Psychology, U of Winnipeg 515 Portage Ave, Winnipeg, MB R3B 0R4 CANADA >>> Paul C Bernhardt <pcbernha...@frostburg.edu> 15-Jan-13 12:40 PM >>> Considering that most of us work with a population of students that generally don't get a flu shot and tend to socialize at a very high level (increasing their likelihood of contracting and passing on the flu) I'm a big believer in faculty getting the flu shot. Paul On Jan 15, 2013, at 12:56 PM, Wuensch, Karl L wrote: That is not a p value, it is relative risk factor. The annual rate of infection with Type A or Type B flu is about 2.7%. If you get vaccinated that drops to about 1.2%. Ignored here is the possibility that there may be pre-existing differences between those that get the shot and those who don*t. Bottom line, you probably will not get the A/B flu whether or not you get the shot, but getting the shot lowers the (small) risk a lot. Given that some types of folks die from the flu, you should get the shot, IMHO, if for no other reason that reducing the risk that you will spread it to a vulnerable person. Of course, there are a lot of illnesses that mimic the symptoms of A/B flu, so don*t be surprised if you get sick even after having the shot. Cheers, <image001.jpg><http://core.ecu.edu/psyc/wuenschk/klw.htm> ----- Original Message ----- From: michael sylvester<mailto:msylves...@copper.net> To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)<mailto:t...@acsun.frostburg.edu> Sent: Tuesday, January 15, 2013 8:16 AM Subject: Flu vaccine and p.6 level of significance In psychological science we require at least a p.05 or better to come to reliable conclusions about the impact of the IV on the DV. But the flu vaccine only has a p.6 (62%) effectiveness, so why are we recommending that everyone get a flu shot. With such a low level of significance,could this be the quintessential 'placebo effect' paradigm? Any MD on Tips except for Beth's husband? michael --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: wuens...@ecu.edu<mailto:wuens...@ecu.edu>. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13060.c78b93d4d09ef6235e9d494b3534420e&n=T&l=tips&o=23016 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-23016-13060.c78b93d4d09ef6235e9d494b35344...@fsulist.frostburg.edu<mailto:leave-23016-13060.c78b93d4d09ef6235e9d494b35344...@fsulist.frostburg.edu> --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: pcbernha...@frostburg.edu<mailto:pcbernha...@frostburg.edu>. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13441.4e79e96ebb5671bdb50111f18f263003&n=T&l=tips&o=23020 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-23020-13441.4e79e96ebb5671bdb50111f18f263...@fsulist.frostburg.edu<mailto:leave-23020-13441.4e79e96ebb5671bdb50111f18f263...@fsulist.frostburg.edu> --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: j.cl...@uwinnipeg.ca. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a891720c9&n=T&l=tips&o=23025 or send a blank email to leave-23025-13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a89172...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: ku...@mail.plymouth.edu. 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