I like the Loftus & Loftus text Essence of Statistics (no longer in print), especially their description of decision making. I might use this example in class this semester: (1) Their are two (unknown) states of reality that could exist after the decision whether to shut down the city or not has been made. (a)There is a severe blizzard. (b)There is not a severe blizzard. (2) There are two possible decisions. (a) Shut it down. (b) Don't. (3) The decision is guided by (a) Evidence beyond the control of the decision maker - the weather forecast. (b) A criterion chosen by the decision maker - just how bad is that forecast? Two possible states of reality and two possible decisions produce four possible outcomes. Two of these are good (don't shut things down and there is not a severe blizzard; shut things down and there is a severe blizzard). Two of these are bad (shut things down and the weather isn't severe; don't shut things down and a historic blizzard happens). The choice of the criterion is determined by the values placed on these outcomes, particularly the bad ones. If you think that inconveniencing people for a day is horrible, set the criterion high. If you think that a large number of weather-related fatalities is horrible, set the criterion low. In this case, I would go with setting the criterion low, and say that authorities made the best decision. It turned out to be a Type I error, but people (literally) can live with that.
Michael T. Scoles, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Psychology & Counseling University of Central Arkansas Conway, AR 72035 Phone: 501-450-5418 Fax: 501-450-5424 AVID: UCA dedicates itself to Academic Vitality, Integrity, and Diversity. >>> "Mike Palij" <m...@nyu.edu> 1/27/2015 11:19 AM >>> > This is a blizzard: http://gothamist.com/2015/01/26/1947_snowstorm_nyc.php Nonetheless, NYC really did shut down last night when all traffic was prohibited on city street, no buses or subways, no bicycles -- how were the fast food delivery guys going to get those last minute pizzas and Chinese food to people who decided that they were hungry at midnight? Well, the powers that be may have overreacted just a wee bit. consider: http://gothamist.com/2015/01/26/blizzard_nyc_yay_blessed.php So, what's a school supposed to do? All grade schools and high schools are closed today. NYU, all CUNY schools, and most other NYC colleges are closed (not sure whether all colleges are closed; some are crazy that way) and the snowfall doesn't even compare with what we had in 2010 or 2006 or 1994 (see the list of NYC blizzards; the 1888 turns out to be especially important http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/winter_history.shtml ) but the MTA didn't shut down the subways, buses, and trains during those storms and a lot of schools remained open. Schools could be open today but because mass transit won't get back to normal until this afternoon, forgetaboutit. I guess after Sandy everyone is a bit gun shy when it comes to bad weather. The most significant blizzard experienced by NYC was probably the blizzard of 1888 which would force the city government in NYC (Manhattan) to put power lines, telephone lines, etc., underground as well as building a subway (finished in 1904) instead of relying upon elevated railroads, street cars, etc. But I guess even the subways are not immune. Anyway, see: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/10/the-great-blizzard-of-1888-the-last-storm-to-knock-out-wall-street/264299/ I don't know if NYU (known as the "University of the City of New York" back then) was open or closed during the 1888 blizzard but I wouldn't be surprised if it were open. -Mike Palij New York University m...@nyu.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: micha...@uca.edu. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=357701.a768e95c4963686e69b47febf8aa657a&n=T&l=tips&o=41683 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-41683-357701.a768e95c4963686e69b47febf8aa6...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@mail-archive.com. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5&n=T&l=tips&o=41684 or send a blank email to leave-41684-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
