On Tue, Dec 1, 2009 at 8:45 PM, Kevin M. <drunkbastar...@gmail.com> wrote:

> My view not withstanding, I believe his explanation is incomplete. It
> is akin to Bush saying (and I'm paraphrasing) that we needed to go to
> Iraq before Iraq came to us. President Obama is making these
> assumptions based on what? At least Bush had the tactless sense to
> convince Colin Powell to present false evidence. Obama is telling us
> we'll be safer if we take care of Afghanistan, but isn't giving us any
> concrete evidence of that. But, back to my view, I believe there is
> greater evidence that Al Queda isn't nesting in any single location. I
> believe a stronger case could be made for widespread deployment of
> special forces teams throughout the region to target Al Queda cells,
> but that would be an unpopular decision both at home and abroad, and
> apparently our safety is less important than our popularity.

I guess we have reached that famous point where we will have to agree
to disagree, since all I can think to do here is repeat not only what
I wrote earlier, but what is in the speech verbatim. He specifically
explains why (in his view of course, and he may be wrong, and you may
be right) US troops are needed in Afghanistan. Some of the people who
planned 9-11 are there, and there are lots more who have already tried
to do something similar, and will keep trying. In recent years these
people who taken over control of more and more of Afghanistan (which
previously they used to train terrorists to attack the US). They are
also working to overthrow the current government of Afghanistan,
which, if they are successful, would give them control over the entire
country.

If these people are killed or captured they wont be able to do any of
these things (I don't think you need any evidence to support that
assertion). I am not sure what evidence you are calling for - I assume
you are convinced that al Queda are bad guys who mean to kill
Americans. It is also beyond any reasonable dispute that there are a
lot of al Queda in the highland borders between Afghanistan and
Pakistan.

I think what we see here is one more pernicious consequence of the
Iraq invasion - that action, unjustified and poorly executed, has
undermined the credibility of any other military action taken by the
US government, regardless of its justification or competence. Again,
Obama has been clear for 7 years now that he was opposed to war in
Iraq, but in favor of war in Afghanistan. This was part of his regular
campaign speech in both the primaries and the general election. He won
the general election. He is now doing what he said literally every day
for 11 months he would do if he was elected president. The nice thing
about being an American is that you are free to disagree with him, but
I don't think you can fairly say this action has been a surprise, or
unexplained, or somehow forced on him by his generals.

Of course there currently is a widespread deployment of special forces
teams throughout the region (that is, the border region between
Afghanistan and Pakistan). As Obama said in his speech tonight, this
has had some real success (by which he means they have killed some
high ranking al Queda terrorists). Most military experts (and I am not
one of these by a long shot) have come to the conclusion that this
kind of action alone is inadequate - mostly because the Taliban is
able to both threaten and intimidate locals to support al Queda
actions, and because the Taliban often is the most organized and
competent source of basic social services and stability. The US
Counterinsurgency strategy is to kill as many bad guys as possible
without killing regular locals, and offer enough protection and
services to the locals that they will not feel the need to support the
bad guys. This strategy has been shown to be effective, but requires
more boots on the ground - hence the surge.

I too would like a solution that requires much less US troop presence
on the ground, and I had imagined for a long time the kind of clean,
surgical strikes against identified targets, either with special
forces teams or some kind of long range bombing (I don't know why you
think this would be unpopular - this would be the most popular thing
they could possibly do. The part that would be public would be pretty
"clean" and the part that would be dirty would be pretty secret. But
for the reasons noted above and included in the President's speech
tonight, this approach is not sufficient.

-- 
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