WK     2-3   4      5      6       7             8          9
10           11        12
M:       5.7   4.3   4.9   4.7   4.6/1.3   4.3/1.3  4/1.2      4.6/1.2
4.5/1.4  4.7/1.3
T:         6.7  6.2   5.8   5.4   6.1/1.8    6.5/2.0 5.7/1.4   6/1.8
4.9/1.9  DARK
W:       6.2  5.7   6.2   5.2   5.0/1.5    4.7/1.3  4.6/1.4  5.2/1.4
5.1/1.6  5.6/1.5
Th:      4.9  4.9   5.2   5.0   4.4/1.6    4.7/1.7  4.6/1.6  4.8/1.6
5.0/1.5  4.7/1.5
F:        5.6  5.3   5.0   6.2   5.1/1.2    4.6/1.2  4.7/1.2  5.1/1.5
3.5/1     4.8/1.4
*AVE:   5.8  5.3   5.4   5.3   5.0/1.5    5.0/1.5  4.7/1.4  5.0/1.5
4.6/1.5  5.2/1.5**

WK      13         14          15          16        17         18
19           20            21
M:        4.7/1.3  4.8/1.5  5.8/1.6    3.2/.9     4.8/1.5  4.8/1.6
4.6/1.3   4.3/1.2     3.9/1.1
T:         8.4/2.9   5.2/1.8   5.2/1.5   3.0/.9    6.4/2.2  6.2/1.9
6.3/2.1   6.3/2.0     DARK
W:       4.5/1.3    5.5/1.6   4.6/1.1   4.4/1.3  5.2/1.6  5.4/1.6
4.6/1.2    DARK      4.2/1.2
Th:      5.8/1.3    5.2/1.7    DARK   DARK   4.6/1.4  4.4/1.3  4.5/1.4
4.3/1.2     3.9/1.2
F:        5.8/1.9    5.6/1.4    3.7/1.1  3.4/1.0  5.8/1.4  5.4/1.4  DARK
5.0/1.4     4.5/1.2
*AVE:   5.8/1.8    5.2/1.6    4.8/1.4* 3.5/1.0* 5.3/1.6  5.2/1.6 5.0#/1.5*
5.0#/1.4*  4.5/1.3**

Leno is going out with a real whimper - I have this as his lowest rated week
of all time (week 16 was all reruns). He has been at or below NBC's
self-proclaimed break even point (1.5 in the demo) for the last three weeks.
The rumors of canceling the JLS and firing Conan broke January 7 (end of
Week 17). At the time I did not recognize the rumors as giving Leno much if
any bump - the two weeks before had been atypical holiday weeks, and his
Thursday and Friday numbers in the intitial wake of the rumors were
comparable to (in some cases lower than) the last non-holiday numbers (Weeks
13 and 14). But looking back now, Week 17 was actually something of a high
water mark for the JLS (best week of 2010) and his numbers have gone down
steadily since. I should note here that I discovered an error in my
spreadsheet in the cells calculating the weekly averages for Week 19 and 20
- this resulted in exaggerating his weekly ratings those weeks. Those
numbers are corrected here and marked with a #).

I am not sure what the trend of the last three weeks means for Leno's
Ratings when he gets back behind his Tonight Show Desk. It might suggest
that all but hard core Lenistos are giving up on him, or it might just mean
that those who like but don't love Leno have decided to do other things with
their 10:00 hour, knowing they can get Leno again soon at the preferred late
night hour. I became convinced after Week 1 that the Jay Leno Show was
significantly worse than the Tonight Show with Jay Leno, so the latter
explanation seems plausible to me. From what I can gather, Dave has been
beating the Conan ratings in the demo, but not by much. Last week, Nightline
was #1 in total viewers and tied Dave in the demo (Nightline: 3.9/1.2; Dave
3.7/1.2; Conan(RR) 2.4/1.1). The fact that RR of Conan are so close to Dave
in the demo fuels the argument that NBC was foolish to give up on Conan so
soon. I still expect Leno to be ahead of Dave, but behind his own previous
numbers (once the initial dust settles) when he returns.

I was going to write that that week 21 was Leno's last full week (he will
only be on Monday and Tuesday next week) but even that is not true. I must
have missed the memo (though now that I think about there may have been a
note posted to this effect on TVORNOTTV) that Leno was Dark this Tuesday, I
guess to give NBC a fighting chance against the Lost premier. I have again
caclulated Leno's weekly average using a recent average number for Tuesday
nights. In his final 6 full weeks Leno was dark in one night 6 times -
though only once on one of his lowest rated nights (Friday). I would like to
have seen what would have happened had NBC decided to at least try going
with a JLS 3 nights a week, T-TH. I think that would have gotten them
through this season, and maybe even next season (the end of 2-year
commitment) without having to screw Conan and embarrass themselves.

Since there are only 2 nights next week I will include the weekly numbers
for all 22 weeks, including the first 3 atypical weeks, and that can stand
in the archive as the complete ratings record on the Jay Leno Show.

-- 
TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People!
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