President Museveni's third term is inevitable Some egg-heads and real reactionaries continue to point their provocative fingers to President Yoweri Museveni, teasing him about his endless deadlines for the end of the Kony war. Uganda Confidential would like to take a little licence and authoritatively inform those detractors that: one, President Museveni has no apology to make, for his shifting deadlines; and two, that as long as the Kony cancer continues to eat a way a section of Ugandan society, President Museveni will be obliged to take on a third term, if need be, in order to wipe off Kony from the surface of Uganda.
And that leads us to the heart of the matter: Why has it taken President Museveni more than 15 years to defeat the ragtag bandits in the north? This is a question that is most of the time naively posed. In order to answer that question, let us look elsewhere. The mighty United States of America, with all its elastic financial resources, has failed to get only one man: Mr Osam bin Laden, even after USA destroyed the Taliban regime of Afghanistan, which used to shelter and back Mr Osama bin Laden. Compare that with Uganda, which in the first place has no capacity to destroy the Sudan regime which supports Kony, and the provocative queries became nothing, but minced meat. The Angolan Government, with all its astronomical earning from oil, which brings in closer to $12 billion a year, where the chief of intelligence has about four executive planes at his disposal, failed to kill rebel chief, Jonas Savimbi for a whole 25 years! Compare that with Uganda, whose earnings from coffee has dropped from a pocket money change of $400 million to only $100 million, and a realistic person can clearly see that the provocations that President Museveni has failed to net Kony, are completely childish and unscientific. Similarly, Sudan, which has been fighting SPLA for the last twenty years, despite its abundant resources, is no where near winning the Southern war. But there is even a more scientific explanation as to why Mr Museveni’s deadlines were expected to come and go, and new ones issued. The fundamental reason why the war in the north is taking long, is because Mr Museveni is being scientific in his approach. Mr Museveni decided to use the carrot method of persuading largely a very hostile north to come into fold. This approach is slow in gaining military victory, but in the long run, it will be more effective in isolating the old fascists and tribalists from the new growing generation with a more nationalist outlook, based on the need to consolidate national economic superstructure. Indeed, the old tribalists like Adok Nekyon have been dumped in the political dustbin and new young and more nationalistic ones like Hon Henry Okello Oryem are now the rising stars. If Mr Museveni was not calculative, he would have pursued the line that gives quick military victory, but which in the long run would not have been unsustainable. This line would have gone like this: Shortly after the end of he war in 1986, Mr Museveni would have deployed a huge fascist army which would have gone in the north on a genocide mission, clearing every one in sight, just like Milton Obote did in the Luwero Triangle. Within only one year, the hostile population in the north would have been wiped out, millions more would have died in refugee camps, and few would have made it as established refugees. In the long run however, after say thirty years, Mr Museveni’s regime would one day have to face the consequences of genocide committed in the north. I ndeed, Mr Museveni has conducted the war in the north with kid gloves. An international study has put the accumulated deaths in the north since 1986 to only 23,520, of which rebels killed by the UPDF are only 8,000. Compare that with the fact that in only five years (1981-85), Milton Obote killed more than 300,000 in Luwero and you will not fail to realise the sensitivity with which Mr Museveni has handled the northern war. President Museveni weighed all this and took the option which is more protracted, slow in giving results, but which, in the end, would produce consolidated political achievements for every one. Two political and economic factors seem to favour Mr Museveni’s protracted approach. One is that the hostile north, especially the Acholis, happen to be in an isolated area which is not very pivotal to the more economically advanced southern part of the country. There is more business between Uganda and the Eastern Congo and Rwanda than between the central and north. What this means is that while the problem of the north continues, the majority of the people in south are not likely to lose economic sleep, which matters a lot. Politically while the minority northerners are not likely to create a political imbalance in the voting period, it is important for the Government to keep the army there, in order to deny the rebels the possibility of having an area which they (rebels) control and use it as a spring board for the likes of Dr Kiiza Besigye to launch the war on the south. And as long as these two factors are taken care of, as Mr Museveni is doing, it will be just a matter of few years, and for the forces of enlightenment to defeat the forces of savage darkness. Despite the fact that President Museveni has had an affirmative action towards the north, in form of a $100 million special annual development fund which Milton Obote never had, Mr Museveni enjoys marginal votes there. To be fair to President Museveni, he has done fairly well. For those forgetful minds, it is important to remind them that not long ago, there were three successive Kony-types of Government for a whole of 15 years (1971-1986) in Uganda. Those were the days when the Konys were in power proper. One could be killed because he had built mere foundation for the house, for having a beautiful wife, for driving a posh car, for putting on a simple glittering watch… Those were the savage days when one could be killed just because he or she spoke English or Luganda. President Yoweri Museveni took a frontal role in dismantling those savage regimes. Subsequently, and as expected, the fragmented cadres of those savage regimes re-grouped and tried to fight back. At one time, there were 14 of them: Uganda National Democratic Alliance, of Sam Luwero, Uganda People’s Front, of Peter Otai, Uganda Youth Pressure Group, of George Ayeko, Uganda Peoples Democratic Movement, of Dr Obonyo, Peace Movement, of Opolot Opetek, Uganda Constitutional Movement, of Akena Adoko, Ninth October Movement, of Milton Obote, U4 Front of John Ogole, NALU, of Amon Bazira, Uganda Peace for Democratic Pluralism, of Olala Otunu, UNLF-AD, of Wadada Nabudere, UDM/UPA, of Otema Alimadi. There was also the UFM and Uganda Democratic Coperation. Surely, if Mr Museveni has managed to defeat all these thuggery groups, and is only remaining with the one that is experiencing the kicks of a dying horse, surely does he not deserve a big congratulations than being teased? Don’t we know where exactly failures went? Where are the Interahamwes? Where is the Idi Amin’s army? Where is the UNLF? Can a sensible person rate Mr Museveni as a failure in his war to contain savages? Finally, what we find most amazing by those who tease Mr Museveni, is that they do not seem to know what they want. On one hand, they poke their fingers in the ribs of Mr Museveni, while at the same time they are unable to offer solutions. Then there is another hole in which bthey are trapped: Support Kony or any other violent means of removing an elected government is now out of place. So while the likes of Dr Besigye and company feel tempted to use the very methods Mr Museveni used to get to power, what they forget is that 15 years is a long time ago, and that things have changed. This new reality, especially after September 11, has disarmed the disgruntled. If the opposition wants to see President Museveni relinquish power in 2006, let them help him finish the Kony menace now. If the opposition continues to inflame hate campaign and encouraging the savage of Kony type, Mr Museveni will have nothing to do, but to be obliged to appropriate the third term. SSEEZI-CHEEYE __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now. http://mailplus.yahoo.com
