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A new load
shedding programme announced recently by government has plunged the
country into darkness. The industrial sector too, which directly depends
on power, is hurting. Low production and increased production costs are
taking their toll on investors.
As Private Sector Foundation
President, James Mulwana, said recently, because of load shedding,
factories are also downsizing the night shift of employees. Of what use
would the night shift be, if power returns at 10.00 Pm yet the machines
take another 2 hours to warm up?
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Energy
boss Syda Bbumba |
Energy
Minister Syda Bbumba, says load shedding is inevitable, because by
September last year, the demand for power had reached 300 mega watts
(MW) and yet the supply had remained constant at 220MW.
According to
Bbumba, the demand has now reached 347MW at peak hours leading to a
shortfall of about 130MW. Even at off peak hours, the demand stands at
245MW, 25MW less than the supply. Bbumba blames the reduced water levels
of Lake Victoria.
The other option, according to Bbumba, is
importing power from neighboring Kenya. "There are some redundant
stations in Kenya that we can tap power from," Bbumba told the press
recently.
But to President Museveni, the power crisis can only be
attributed to "lack of independence" from donors.
"Lack of
independence is causing the country problems," the president said at the
Independence Day celebrations at Kololo on October 9.
He said
"interference from some development partners" had almost made it
impossible to hold anybody accountable for the crisis, as the country
had become "everybody's business."
The President says government's
intentions to construct power dams at Kalagala, Bujagali and Karuma to
deal with the shortage of power in the country had been frustrated by
development partners.
"Some of our friends (donors) said it would
be dangerous and we would suffer from too much electricity, and now we
are having these shortages," he said.
And apparently, the squabbles
between the government and development partners do not seem to show any
sign of abetting.
A recent communication from Karren Rasmussen, Lead
Financial Analyst, World Bank Energy Group World Bank "requested" the
Bujagali project deal to be reviewed.
He said WB requires that
after the pullout of AES Nile Power bid to develop Bujagali in September
2003, a fresh assessment of the social-economic, environmental,
technical and other aspects of the project should be redone before
sanctioning its funding.
He also called for the re-examining of
alternative hydro power projects like Karuma as well as thermal options
and imports of electricity in light of Uganda's projected power demands
to determine the least cost power option.
But, said Rasmussen,
"Only one power project is justified at the moment."
Apparently, the
World Bank does not want to co-finance Karuma with Norpak, as requested
by Government, because it thinks the country lacks the capacity to
absorb output from the two dams if they are constructed
simultaneously.
Meanwhile as Government and its 'friends' the donors
play hide and seek, the country' demand for power continues grow at over
8% per month (4MW).
Uganda Electricity Distribution Company Limited
(UEDCL) officials say power demand has been growing at 11.4% since
2002.
But they blame the current shortage of power on the water
levels of Lake Victoria, which they, say, have "dropped because of the
prolonged drought."
But Hillary Onek, an engineer and Lamwo County
MP, contends that it is indeed a technical error at Nalubale and Kiira
dams in Jinja and not the "drought" that is to blame for the power
crisis.
Onek says a well-designed dam, having Lake Victoria as
its reservoir cannot fail because of a short period of drought. He
argues that the statistical average of Nile river flow at Jinja, which
has been monitored since 1899, is currently 800 Cu.M/Sec - enough to run
through the Jinja facilities without affecting the water level of the
lake.
But he says releasing more water like it has been done with
the construction of both Nalubale and Kiira dams close to each other
could only deplete the existing reservoir and hence lowering the water
level.
According to Mr. Gregory Begumisa, an industrial
Consultant in Kampala, for the next 20 years, energy demand will grow at
80MW annually if only 70% of industrial projects licenced by the Uganda
Investment Authority (UIA) take off. Industrial demand alone will be
1600MW by 2025.
He says installed capacity stands at 315.3MW (180MW
at Nalubale and 120MW at Kiira plants; 4MW from Kilembe Mines Ltd; 10MW
from Kasese Cobalt Co. Ltd and 1.6MW diesel generated in Arua, Moroto,
Adjumani and Nebbi).
National installed capacity will only rise
to just 395MW when the two generating sets at Kiira and Nalubale are
installed by June 2005.
Bujagali and Karuma power projects would add
250MW around 2009 if (mark this)constructed simultaneously effective
2005.
Another 50MW would be from mini plants earmarked for Waki in
Masindi, Bugoye in Kasese; Nengo Bridge in Rukungiri and Muzisi in
Kabarole and one or two others. Total installed capacity for electricity
supply in 2010 then will be in the neighbourhood of
800MW.
Begumisa says this is "nothing" if the country is to
achieve its dream to industrialise, leave alone investing in mining and
petroleum exploration, sectors which consume several hundreds of mega
watts.
Begumisa says compared to other countries, Uganda "fares very
badly" in electricity supply capacity. At about 200MW, Uganda has one of
the lowest supply capacities in the region. The DRC with a capacity
supply of 2,523MW has an 1800MW dam at Inga, built to accelerate its
industrialization.
Kenya, which has less hydropower potential
than Uganda, has a supply capacity of 598MW (three times that of Uganda)
for its population of 32 million. Egypt generates about 150 times as
much electricity as Uganda, most of it from damming the River Nile that
originates from Uganda.
"Richer African countries are those whose
electricity supply is in multiples of that of Uganda's," Begumisa told a
stakeholders workshop recently.
"What these countries have in
common that Uganda doesn't are are serious planners and good energy
policies."
So as a way forward, let Government and the donors bring
on board a team of people (even if they are expatriates) who can design
a viable energy strategy for the country and put them in charge.
Otherwise, with the on going standoff between government and World Bank,
the country's power crisis and the resultant darkness and under
development could only get from bad to worse.
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