David Bovill wrote:
On 11 April 2010 16:40, Richard Gaskin <ambassador at fourthworld.com> wrote:
But note that Apple didn't cancel their MacBook line when they introduced
the iPad.
They would be a bit silly to do that at this stage. Note though they are
putting nearly all their investment into iPhone OS4 development and not OSX
development?
Yes, I'm aware that Android is a much stronger competitor to Apple than
Microsoft is right now. But it's also true that Apple just released OS
X 10.6.3 a few days ago, and is about to enhance the MacBook line.
This is the first I've heard that Apple is killing OS X, so forgive me
if I ask for sources on that.
So far all indications I've seen are that Apple intends to continue
making computers as they expand their range of other devices, for at
least the next few years as I wrote earlier.
Each has a very different task focus.
Yes - the question is which will become the mainstream computing device used
by most people? My guess is you feel that the laptop / desktop will be the
most common and devices like the iPad will fill a niche? Or do you think
that most computing devices will be like the iPad and PC's and laptops a
niche - used say only be developers?
I don't think it's an either or, and Apple isn't asking us to choose
between them.
Indeed, they currently require that you own a computer to make full use
of the iPad (though I suspect that will change over time).
Who knows what will come in the future? As I wrote in an earlier blog
entry:
For whatever reasons, technical or otherwise, the iPad we saw
yesterday is a compromised prototype of the touchscreen UI for
something yet to come, a mere stepping stone toward a product
that'll look very different by the time it's fully realized.
...
My hunch is the iPad as we know it today will live about 24
months while Apple prepares something truly amazing. This
was good, but the reviews thus far have been mixed, noting
its limitations relative to the mind-blowing "Wow!" Apple
normally delivers.
I believe that mind-blowing "Wow!" is on its way.
<http://revjournal.com/blog.irv?pid=1264792195.952185>
Certainly the WIMP is long overdue to be eclipsed by a new paradigm.
But what that will look like is hard to say because it isn't here yet.
I believe the iPad hints at a step toward that future, but is not the
end of that evolutionary path.
Personally - I'd say writing was over-rated - and that we are all going to
be quite surprised by how much we can do without it.
Exhibit A: How are we communicating right now?
Exhibit B: Why are we on this list?
Exhibit C: How far would the sum of all human achievement have gotten
without writing?
If anything I'd say writing is "under-rated". :)
And why not use a stylus?
Good question. I look forward to seeing a vendor answer that. Maybe
Apple will be one of them.
As a gamblin man - if anyone wants to place a long term bet against the
notion that laptops and PCs' are not going to take a heavy nose-dive in
sales, when compared to mobile phones and iPad style devices - I know where
I'd put my money - any takers out there :)
Depends on the timeline.
The web was supposed to kill the desktop, as though no one noticed that
it was taking place in an app that runs on the desktop.
People seem anxious to jump on the "Everything you know is wrong"
excitement, but I'm just old enough to take a more relaxed view of change.
Yes, change is inevitable, even sweeping change, but humanity has a lot
of inertia, in terms of markets, standards, and even the cognitive
process itself. All of these things take time to adjust, and new
paradigms take a while to sort themselves out into workable models that
are cost-effective and task-effective enough to completely supplant what
came before.
Personally, the iPad seems much too large to be the long-term answer,
and my guess is it's not where Apple's going in the long term.
As their patent filing I pointed to suggests, I see a brighter future
for something that fits in your pocket and has no screen at all....
Until that device is available for $299, I see a future of multiple
devices for a variety of tastes and needs in which the only constant is
that we need to think about dynamic screen sizes.
--
Richard Gaskin
Fourth World
Rev training and consulting: http://www.fourthworld.com
Webzine for Rev developers: http://www.revjournal.com
revJournal blog: http://revjournal.com/blog.irv
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