"Walk toward the light" http://theserverside.com/articles/article.tss?l=RiA
Vic, I briefly read over the article. I agree that we'll see more and more rich clients, but one of the problems is people aren't going to want to always install stuff on their desktop in order to run an application - so I wouldn't go so far as to say HTML will be "dead." Flash is nice because it runs almost seemlessly within the browser since the plugin is so easy to install. I'm not convinced, yet, that something like Java Desktop will be that ubiquitous that it will replace the likes of the browser as a client.
-- Rick
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