Horace writes: >Maybe there is a natural protection ( against AIDS )in the Japanese gene pool?
Actually, I think it is more due to the insularity of the Japanese culture, along with sexual mores. Jed seems to describe Japan as some hotbed of lust, but looking at the grossly declining birth rate I wonder about this (grin). OTOH, those of European descent do have a natural immunity to AIDS due to our genes. It seems the AIDS virus infects the immune system by inserting itself into the blood cells, which carry the virus throughout the body. In order to accomplish this feat, the virus needs to fit through tiny pores in the blood cell. It happens that ~5-10% of Europeans have very small pores, making it impossible for the virus to fit and infect. This was discovered by analysis of gay men who survived the initial wave of infections here in America. How did this situation come about? Well, I'll risk being burned at the stake for heresy, and point out that our old friend evolution had a hand in this. It seems that the Black Plague is similar to AIDS in this respect, requiring to fit through the blood cell pores to infect the body. As you know, Europe was decimated by the Black Plague during the Middle Ages. The survivors were those with the small pored blood cells. So the concentration of such people increased from the mere .01% or less in the general population to 5 to 10 %. No such plague occurred in Africa, hence no natural immunity. Horace, I think you should include in your model the fact that a cure or vaccine will eventually be found, putting a limit condition on your exponential growth curve. With that in mind, encouraging condom use will substantially decrease the total death toll once the limit condition is reached, regardless of the fact that condoms are not 100% effective in stopping the spread of the disease. Your argument about people having unlimited sex if they think it is safe is a red herring. We can look at analogous situations for guidance, for a while in this country we had prohibition against drinking alcohol. The result was the birth of the first major crime syndicates and a nation of alcoholics. Cooler heads prevailed and the ban was lifted. Now we have prohibition against drugs, the argument being the same ( if we tell people it's OK, they'll all do it ) and not surprisingly, we have a nation of drug addicts and massive crime syndicates. I'll argue just the opposite of you; if we tell people that sex is bad and will kill you, we will drive _many_ more people to having sex than if we tell them it's OK but they should use protection. This is basic psychology, H. Right now, looking out my window, a group of young boys are playing football on my street, which is a blind turn off of a major avenue. It's just a matter of time before one is killed. A few blocks from my place is a large park with playing fields, but they don't want to use them. They play in the busy street _because_ it is dangerous. Make no mistake, if I tell them to stop, they'll make a point of moving into the avenue itself and will surely be hit. You ask, "where's mom and dad?" Dads in jail of course ( where the heck else would dad be? ) and mom's about 1/2 my age, and I ain't an old man H. I think you would be absolutely amazed at how most people actually live. K.
