Wesley Bruce wrote:
We can't rule out a collapse of communism in China or a shattering of the
peoples republic, both would be messy, very messy.
Not necessarily. The collapse of communism in Russia and Eastern Europe was
calm and orderly, with practically no casualties. Of course Russia still
has a long way to go before it achieves Western European standards, but it
is improving and it is far better than it was under communism. I expect
that China will gradually evolve away from communism, until the government
is overthrown in a "velvet revolution."
Doomsday scenarios seldom come true, because most people are sane, and they
want to live in peace. In the 1950s, many people assumed that the US and
the Soviet Union would eventually launch a nuclear Armageddon, but it never
happened. It turned out we could live with them and they could live with
us. I am 110% confident that we can reach the same kind of accommodation
with China and also with Muslim nations such as Saudi Arabia. See Kennedy's
speech at American University, June 1963:
http://usa.usembassy.de/etexts/speeches/rhetoric/jfkuniv.htm
QUOTE
"Some say that it is useless to speak of world peace or world law or world
disarmament - and that it will be useless until the leaders of the Soviet
Union adopt a more enlightened attitude. I hope they do. I believe we can
help them do it. But I also believe that we must reexamine our own attitude
- as individuals and as a Nation - for our attitude is as essential as
theirs. . . .
First: Let us examine our attitude toward peace itself. Too many of us
think it is impossible. Too many think it unreal. But that is a dangerous,
defeatist belief. It leads to the conclusion that war is inevitable - that
mankind is doomed - that we are gripped by forces we cannot control.
We need not accept that view. Our problems are manmade - therefore, they
can be solved by man. And man can be as big as he wants. No problem of
human destiny is beyond human beings. Man's reason and spirit have often
solved the seemingly unsolvable - and we believe they can do it again."
Remember that! If you have any doubts, look around and see what we have
accomplished already. Read history, and try to realize how difficult it was
to build civilization. You will see that our present problems are small in
comparison.
Also, the notion that France is going to be taken over by Muslim
civilization is nonsense. No trend lasts forever. If anything, over the
next few hundred years I expect Western values and science will permeate
Muslim nations even more than it has already, despite their opposition.
Science and democracy, which are two sides of the same coin, are the most
powerful ideas in human history. They outweigh even religion, nationalism,
capitalism and communism. I think they will continue to move mountains and
change civilizations for many centuries to come. Long after capitalism has
been replaced by a system in which we will produce all the goods we want
for free, and people do no work, and long after nation states have withered
away and international borders no longer exist, science will still be
progressing. Today's news offers hope. Science and rationality have
triumphed in Dover, PA:
"All eight members of the Pennsylvania school board that had been sued for
introducing the teaching of intelligent design as an alternative to
evolution in biology class were swept out of office Tuesday by a slate of
challengers who campaigned against the intelligent-design policy."
- Jed
