In reply to Horace Heffner's message of Sat, 16 Jun 2007 22:22:20 -0800: Hi, [snip] > >On Jun 15, 2007, at 8:00 PM, Robin van Spaandonk wrote: > >> In reply to Horace Heffner's message of Fri, 15 Jun 2007 16:18:36 >> -0800: >> Hi, >> [snip] >>> My point was not about ethics at all though, merely that pursuit of >>> nuclear weapons capability is a *stupid* strategy for a country like >>> Iran. >> >> But how do you know they are pursuing nuclear weapons? > >As much as you seem to wish I had said Iran is pursuing nuclear >weapons, I did not. What I did was list some obvious possible follow- >on scenarios, in random order, including the possible scenario that >Iran gets the bomb, or one is used, scenario (e). As much as it >appears you would like to put words into my mouth and convert a >*requested* prediction, provided in my case as a set of energy >related scenarios and an associated guess at a maximum time to a >bump, into an off topic ethno-political argument, I dislike it.
Horace if I misread your intentions while reading between the lines, then I apologize. > >I would much prefer to hear your (and other's) answer to the >question, your predicted time line to the first serious bump in the >energy road, and why: > >On Jun 14, 2007, at 6:51 AM, R.C.Macaulay wrote: >> Howdy Vorts, >> >> With all the energy info rhetoric eminating out of D.C. and news >> sources do you sense the public is expecting too much from the >> energy industry? >> >> What is your predicted time line for the first really serious >> "bump" in the road ? >> >> Richard [snip] If people can refrain from fighting one another, then I think a gradual increase in the price of gasoline, and a concomitant increase in alternative fuels is more likely than an actual bump. With the tar sands in Canada and the shale oil in the US there is actually enough (more or less expensive?) oil to last for decades, during which time alternatives can be brought online. Though I don't like admitting it, there's a possibility that current price rises are being deliberately introduced in order to provide a price signal that will hasten the introduction of alternatives, and concurrently help to alleviate global warming. IOW someone may actually be doing some long term planning and manipulating the market accordingly. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk The shrub is a plant.
