On Jul 16, 2007, at 7:48 AM, Jones Beene wrote:
I absolutely dispute the conclusions of the paper mentioned on
Horace's site about continuation of price-drops. From my recent
experience getting actual quotes - I think we reached the bottom in
2005-6 or before, and now the prices are now going up!
Commercial retail prices are again coming down. It is profitability
that has been up. Demand has far outstripped production capacity.
That's why there are so many new technology types and companies,
especially thin film, that are now in the factory construction
stages. To follow commercial prices on a regular bases check out:
http://www.solarbuzz.com/
Best thin film commercial price is now $3/watt. As the film gets
thinner the price goes down. Building integration schemes are only
now getting started. Larger panels, 1 m^2, and continuous flexible
roll, now coming online, will help this cost go down.
That's not where the real bucks are, though. Sooner or later
somebody will figure this out. It's in vertical integration. Best
strategy I see is to buy out a good solar manufacturer, and energy
storage manufacturer, and build power plants at cost. Then its just
a matter of how much cheap sunny land you can find. AT $0.21/kWh
(commercial COST) this strategy doesn't yet make much sense, but as
the prices move toward the nexus point it will be to the manufacturer
that is producing (wholesale) at less than $0.10/ kWh, especially in
states that run air conditioning where daytime peak power is at a
premium, and green energy is as well. To that manufacturer, there
is no risk at all once he has options on the land, and energy price
contracts locked in.
Horace Heffner
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
