Robin van Spaandonk wrote:
>Biased sample
>Hasty generalization
>Misleading vividness
>
>http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies
[snip]
I'm afraid it's worse than that. Global warming adds energy to the
system, which
in turn results in greater amplitude in the oscillations. This means higher
highs, but also lower lows.
Right, yes. Of course. To know that you have to study the global
warming literature. My point was that before you get to that stage,
you should realize that one isolated weather event cannot be used to
predict a large-scale, long-term trend. Weather is inherently
variable. In other words, going back to basic principles of science
and statistics, an educated person should know better than to say:
"global warming isn't real because it is snowing here today."
Along the same lines, a professional electrochemist should know
better than to say: "I couldn't make cold fusion work after one
attempt, so cold fusion doesn't exist." (Let's say an electrochemist
at CalTech, for example.)
As you say, it may be that extreme snowy conditions actually are
evidence for global warming. If they are widespread and repeated this
might become apparent. Strictly speaking, all weather conditions
everywhere in the world reflect the effects of global warming --
assuming global warming is occurring. But you can't tell unless you
measure conditions carefully and compare them to previous historical
conditions. Along the same lines, it may be that all Pd-D2O calls
produce some level of cold fusion. (Maybe not, but let's say they
do.) Therefore, your hypothetical electrochemist at CalTech cannot
even say for sure that "it didn't work." He can only say: "it did not
work well enough to detect with the instruments and algorithms I
employed." His assertion becomes less and less impressive with each
iteration, as academic rigor increases. People looking for a
clear-cut "yes or no" answer find this frustrating. They don't like
ambiguity. They should not become researchers.
The same is true of many positive cold fusion results, needless to
say. They get less impressive the closer you look.
- Jed
