----- Original Message ----- From: "Horace Heffner" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <vortex-l@eskimo.com> Sent: Monday, June 23, 2008 5:05 PM Subject: Re: [Vo]:Re: Nanosolar's 1 GW/yr solar cell printer
> > On Jun 23, 2008, at 1:31 AM, Michel Jullian wrote: > >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: "Horace Heffner" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >> To: <vortex-l@eskimo.com> >> Sent: Saturday, June 21, 2008 1:51 PM >> Subject: Re: [Vo]:Nanosolar's 1 GW/yr solar cell printer >> >> >>> >>> On Jun 21, 2008, at 3:12 AM, Michel Jullian wrote: >>> >>>> Nanosolar's 1 GW/yr solar cell printer presented by CEO Martin >>>> Roscheisen here, with a video: >>>> >>>> http://www.nanosolar.com/blog3/ >>>> >>>> If they sell the panels at $1/W as announced, they are aiming at a >>>> $1B annual income, not too shabby :) >>>> >>>> Michel >>> >>> Yes, but that is just for one 1GW CIGS coater, which cost $1.65 >>> million. On that basis, Nanosolar should be financially capable of >>> sustaining 10x to 100x per year growth rate - until resources, like >>> supplies, staff, land, or customers run out. >> >> True, their growth rate promises to be astronomical (Jones wouldn't >> agree ;) >> >>> The major impediments >>> to going all solar are bulk energy storage, i.e. large battery or >>> hydrogen generating systems, and low cost energy transmission >>> systems. >> >> Storage is improving, latest lithium ion batteries for electric >> cars with tens of thousands of cycles lifetime e.g. altairnano seem >> promising, > > Actually, A123 has them already beat to market it appears, and > Toshiba has some interfering patents. Altair stock (ALTI) is in the > dumps now, under $2/shr. Indeed several working technologies are in competition, which is an excellent thing for the end user! >> couldn't utilities give rebates to customers accepting to store >> energy for them in their sometimes underused car batteries? > > Many existing utilities will be slow to adapt smart meters, and many > already resist having to manage power coming from residences. Major > solar power generation utilities, however, if not hindered by > regulation, are highly motivated for fast growth and innovation. > >> >> As for transmission, what's wrong with current electric power >> transmission lines? >> >> Michel > > They don't ship power well across oceans, and don't ship energy in > stored form, i.e. as hydrogen, nitrogen, or silicon compounds. The > biggest cost item may soon be land itself, and 3rd world desert will > be ideal for power generation. The major problems for global > renewable energy production are energy storage and shipping, but > these problems may be solved now the economics are right. > > The content of some of my old posts on the subject are here: > > http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/BigPicture.pdf > http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/EnergyCosts.pdf Doesn't seem to include solar PV (e.g. Nanosolar: $2/W installation cost, > 25 yr lifetime, negligible running costs, right?) > http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/Hpipeline.pdf > http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/HotCold.pdf > > Similar problems will exist specifically for the USA - because land > and sun are best in the southern desert areas, but adequate long > distance transmission facilities, in terms of either price or > capacity, are not available. Who needs deserts? Land _outside cities_ is cheap, and insolation acceptable, in most places, so in most cases it isn't necessary to carry the energy over long distances. So the existing power grid is already adequate for large scale deployment of municipal PV plants, which is indeed occurring as we speak, limited only by panel supply I guess. Michel > High voltage DC systems may provide an > answer for that, but not overnight. Room temperature superconducting > transmission at a low capital cost would be good, but that is not in > sight yet. Hydrogen transmission systems would work well, but are > probably decades off. Electrolysis itself needs a lot of > improvement, though it is a viable technology now, depending on the > competing cost of energy. > > I expect the biggest problems and roadblocks to renewable energy > development will continue to come from governments. Money for energy > research and development has been allocated in mere token amounts, > enough to give politicians talking points, but at less than one > percent of what is needed. LENR or ZPE or other solutions might even > be at hand now if enough money were spent on research, solutions > which bypass the storage and shipping problems altogether. > > Best regards, > > Horace Heffner > http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/ > > > >
