On Wed, Nov 25, 2009 at 1:40 PM, Jeff Fink <rev...@ptd.net> wrote:
THE GLOBAL WARMING SCAM 11-24-09 There is interesting news as a result of leaked e-mails. Terry wrote: Actually, I believe they were hacked. Jeff Fink wrote: There is interesting news as a result of leaked e-mails. It shows that the scientists who have been pushing the man made global warming agenda have been suppressing and altering data. ----------- Hi All, 12-2-09 Enclosed below is some Cycles info which you may find interesting. Jack Smith ----------- A 2000-YEAR GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION BASED ON NON-TREERING PROXIES Posted by: "Ray Tomes" r...@tomes.biz rjtomes Date: Tue Dec 1, 2009 2:17 pm ((PST)) Tree ring proxies for cliamet have a number of series problems when looking at long term trends in climate (details in the paper), so Craig Loehle set out to make a non-tree-ring record for the last 2000 years using 18 series from around the world. A 2000-YEAR GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION BASED ON NON-TREERING PROXIES by Craig Loehle Reprinted from ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT VOLUME 18 No. 7+8 2007 http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Loehle-2000-year-n\on-treering-temp-reconstruction-Energy-and-Environment.pdf see also http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2008/02/11/a-2000-yea\r-global-temperature-record/ This data is very important as it bypasses all the problems of tree rings as well as the problems of human records (urban encroachment and fiddled data etc). The teperature curve shows the historically known fluctuations much more clearly - the medieval warming and the cold period following that and before the more recent rise. There is evidently one very long cycle-looking wave that take the full 2000 years to run one cycle. That would probably be the 2300 year cycle which I posted about recently. There can also be seen a cycle of about 200 years which is the de Vries cycle, as well as an indication of a shorter cycle of around 50 to 60 years. These are all known cycles from longer climate records. There will be no shorter cycles than that in the data because a 30 year smoothing was done (unfortunately). It is my intention to try to establish the phase of these most important cycles from this record as well as to build a regression model that includes these main well established climate cycles plus some index of human carbon burning so that the regression equation can work out the correct proportion of human and natural cycles in the cause of the fluctuations. My plan is to look for global consumption of coal and oil as a reasonable approximation of human activity. Of course forest burning and other activities may well be important also, but I am not sure whether data is available on this. Any suggestions on data sources for such material is most welcome. It does look to me like there is a significant human effect because the recent rise is a bit sharper than the general slope of the 2300 year cycle, perhaps 0.2 degrees or so. ------------ A 2000-YEAR GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION BASED ON NON-TREERING PROXIES Posted by: "Ray Tomes" r...@tomes.biz rjtomes Date: Tue Dec 1, 2009 4:07 pm ((PST)) I wrote: It is my intention to try to establish the phase of these most important cycles ... The de Vries cycle period is found by analysis of this temperature series to be 204.4 years. Given that there are almost 10 full cycles of this cycle present in the data, the period is probably accurate to a few years. This is consistent with other determinations of the cycle period. The phase is the important thing - the best fit to the data gives a peak in 1781 and therefore the next peak is around 1985-6. Because of the smoothing used the data actually stops at 1980. It is generally recognized that the 1990s were the warmest decade in recent centuries, so that all fits together in a meaningful way. It also means that the de Vries temperature cycle will be causing falling temperatures until a trough around 2088. The longer cycle in the data is best fitted by a 1625 year cycle, but that means very little when we have only one cycle of the data. It is better to use the known 2300 year period of the Hallstadtzeit climate cycle (See my post of 2009-11-28 06:32 pm subject "2300 Hallstadtzeit climate cycle" for a graph of 10,000 years of this cycle.). Using the 2300 year period the phase of the cycle is determined as being at a maximum in about 707 AD and a minimum in about 1857 AD. This entirely disagrees with that previous post which shows a minimum 1500 years ago (500 AD) when the later data is very near maximum. This is very frustrating. We do know that the medieval maximum was around 900 AD or so and a minimum at about 1600 AD. Of course these are only 700 years ago which is significantly less than half of a 2300 year cycle. So the phase of the 2300 year cycle must be considered somewhat unsure, but it does appear to be still rising. More work needs to be done here to explain why these two temperature graphs are so seriously out of phase for the 2300 year cycle. There is a cycle of about 50 years running through the entire temperature series that allows each individual cycle to be identified. Maxima can be identified at intervals averaging 50 years but in many cases the cycle varies from 40 to 60 years or even a little beyond. A Fourier analysis shows a complex series of peaks so that no single period fits the data well. We could say that this cycle does not have a perfectly regular rhythm or fixed phase. However the most recent peaks do lead to expecting the most recent peak to have been at around 1993 (remember the data stops at 1980 due to smoothing) which again is in accord with the facts including the two recent peaks and troughs. So based on this cycle the next trough will be around 2018 and the following peak around 2043 +/- possibly as much as 10 years. With the 200 and 50 year cycles considered together, we could expect a combined low in the vicinity 2093 before both cycles turn up. Of course this takes no account of human effects that might be present in the recent record. However we can say that whatever heating is due to humans, it will be considereably softened by nature until 2093 but that after that date the two will add together to cause general heating for the following 100 years. ---------- 405,000 years and 2.2 million years cycles in Earth's orbital parame Posted by: "Ray Tomes" r...@tomes.biz rjtomes Date: Tue Dec 1, 2009 8:22 pm ((PST)) I have previously mentioned the 405,000 year cycle in the Earth's orbital eccentricity is so steady that it has been adopted as a basis for measuring geological cycles: A new astronomical solution for the calibration of a geological time scale: A team led by Jacques Laskar, from IMCCE/CNRS and Paris Observatory has released a new solution for the long term evolution of the orbital and rotational motion of the Earth. Using Milankovitch paleoclimate cycles, this solution has already been used as a reference time scale for the calibration of the sedimentary records over the Neogene period (0-23.03 Myr) in the new geological time scale (GTS2004) adopted by the International Comission of Stratigraphy (ICS) and the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS). It is the first time that an astronomical solution has been used to establish the ICS geological chronology over a full geological period. For details see: http://www.imcce.fr/Equipes/ASD/insola/earth/earth.html That web site now has a link that allows putting parameters in and getting calculations back over extended time periods. I ran it on the period from 20 million years ago to 20 million years into the future and got the following graph. The 405,000 year cycle is easily visbile as the closely spaces peaks. Also visible are is an envelope of these peaks that rises and falls every 5 or 6 peaks and averages 2.2 million years. That is curious, because I was trying to find out whether the known 1.11 million year Jupiter-Neptune energy exchange cycle also showed up in the Earth's orbital parameters. These two cycles of 1.1 million years and 2.2 million years are linkages from the longer geological cycle periods down to the shorter and more often studied solar system periods. There is a 1.1 million year period in the Earth's magnetic field reversals as well as an ~9 million year period. We have the series of frequency doublings: ~8.9 million -- 4.44 million -- 2.22 million -- 1.11 million years. I believe that I can fully explain the Earth's magnetic field reversals if I can get the right orbital parameters over long periods of time. -------------- Nearby galaxies show distance quanta of 168 KLY, 415 KLY and around Posted by: "Ray Tomes" r...@tomes.biz rjtomes Date: Tue Dec 1, 2009 8:27 pm ((PST)) Using Kotov's method of looking for commensurabilities between a set of values, I examined the distances between the nearest 110 galaxies (source wikipedia) and found that there are significant peaks at around 167,800 light years, 414,700 light years and a pair at 2.19 and 2.58 million light years. What this means is that galaxies tend to favour being at distances which are fractions and multiples of these distances. The smaller distance which I have previously identified as about 185,000 light years represents the distance of the Magellanic clouds from the Milky way and of the hanger on galaxies from Andromeda. Other small galaxies like to be multiples of this distance from larger galaxies. It is a type of "bond length" for small galaxies. The larger step of 2.19 million years I had previously identified as 2.22 million light years. It represents the distance between nearby pairs of large spiral galaxies. The extra peak at 2.58 MLY seems to be because Andromeda is a bit off and has a lot of associated small galaxies. The 414,700 LY distance is not a particluarly obvious distance in terms of my previous understanding, but is a prominent peak. However the fascinating thing is the comparison of variations in the Earth's insolation which has periods of 405,000 years and 2.2 million years with these distances of 415,000 LY and 2.2 MLY. Once again we see that standing waves are indicated with these wavelengths and periods. Both the wavelength in light years and the periods in years are detected locally. Other examples of this phenomena are: 1. The megawalls of galaxies at ~586 million light years matching geological cycle of 586 million years (also 293, 146, 73, 36.5 MY). 2. Local stars favouring distances from each other of 4.44, 5.9, 7.15, 8.9, 9.6, 11.8 light years and common cycles on earth having the same periods in years. 3. The planets forming two groups with distances being the nodes of 160, 80, 6 and 3 light minute waves, and the Sun having oscillations of 160 and 5-6 minutes.
