I've been thinking about the fact that Rossi paid the University of Bologna €1 million to investigate his cell, and he granted them permission to open the cell and subjected to mass spectroscopy, reportedly in cooperation with CERN.
First, let me predict that a mass spec result will prove indisputably that Rossi's device is producing a nuclear reaction. Based on what we know about cold fusion, and on previous results, I predict that after they run the gadget for a few months at 15 kW, when they examine the nickel catalyst, they will find macroscopic isotopic shifts. The shifts will obviate the need for an independent replication of the device. Nothing can be more indendent, more reliable, or more repeatable than detecting large isotopic shifts. You could send the samples out to a dozen labs and they will come up with the same conclusion. I realize that mass spectroscopy can be tricky when the samples are small but I am assuming that massive amounts of energy will produce large transmutations. So, assuming these tests are not canceled at the last minute, which is unlikely, I think the fact that Rossi has agreed to the tests proves he cannot be scamming anyone. He cannot be faking. I do not think he is scamming anyone in the first place. I don't see how he could be. The nature of the calorimetry precludes this. But mass spec results will prove he is 100% above board from a business perspective. Why? Because a scammer would never allow his device to be opened and tested by experts. If there was anything untoward about the machine, such as a hidden source of fuel or hidden wires, that would be obvious the moment they open the cell. Furthermore, these tests will reveal the exact nature of the nuclear reaction, or if there is no nuclear reaction they will reveal that fact. Not only is Rossi allowing an indisputable test of his device by experts, he is paying for the tests! This is so far from what a scammer would do, it simply makes no sense to postulate that he might be one. I do not buy accusations that he is being excessively secretive. He has no patent. He controls the technology that is worth hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars. I assume he has the people at U Bologna under nondisclosure agreements. That's entirely reasonable. He has every right to do that. The point is, when he allows Levi et al. to examine the inside of the device with mass spectroscopy, he proves he is willing to face facts and share vital information with qualified people. He's hiding things from potential commercial rivals, not from the entire scientific world. If he were suffering from the Inventor's Disease he would reveal this information to no one. He would take it to the grave. I wish he would expand the small circle of scientists he is sharing information with, but I cannot fault him for not publishing it and sharing it with everyone. I was already 99.99% convinced that these claims are real based on the calorimetry alone. The results are too large and too clear-cut to be fake. It can only be fake if Levi were in cahoots with Rossi. I dismiss that possibility. It is too far-fetched. Still, I will feel relief when Ahern, Cravens or someone else produces a large-scale, high power density reaction with nickel and light water. As I said, large-scale to me is anything over 10 W. (If you don't think 10 W qualifies as "large scale," you can chalk that up as a measure of how desperate I am to see indisputable results, macroscopic power, and proof-of-principle that Rossi is right.) The mass spec tests will eliminate all remaining doubts about Rossi's scientific integrity. His personality remain a mystery. He is a strange, even by the standards of cold fusion. He says things that do not add up. He exaggerates, describing thousands of tests one day, and tens of thousands the next. His website lists a degree from a diploma mill, and an advisor who is either named incorrectly or may be dead or nonexistent. I believe he even served time in jail. He is sloppy with numbers and figures, which is a little surprising for an engineer. He changes his story from day to day. We can't be sure CERN will be involved because, as Akira Shirakawa diplomatically put it: "Rossi says many things. He's very talkative (excluding technical details), however what he says does not always turn out to be 100% accurate. CERN might only be indirectly or very loosely involved with this matter, if even at all, if the quoted text above is to be taken very literally . . ." In short, Rossi is exasperating. His eccentricities are so flamboyant they make me suspect he cannot be a confidence man. He inspires no confidence! He would make the world's worst confidence man. It is almost reassuring. In a broader sense, we should make a distinction between personal credibility and scientific credibility. Many scientists, inventors and programmers are flamboyant people who in their personal lives are untrustworthy. You would not want to get into a business deal with them. Thomas Edison, for example, was a sharp dealer who routinely cheated people. After he died they found piles of unpaid bills and a series of increasingly irate letters from a university demanding that he either pay for or return their vacuum pump, which was the best in the world. I expect the pump is still there. Edison hoarded tons of stuff, in a chaotic mess. Edison was also a first-class eccentric who attracted other eccentrics. His laboratory staff was "a veritable cuckoo's nest of learned men, cranks, enthusiasts, ambitious youth, plain muckers, and quite insane people." Edison "disliked employing people with intelligence and initiative to pursue experiments independently" so the staff often "floundered about." "He measured employees more by their salaries than by their output. He dismissed chemists, but hired hordes of boys with little education on the premise that it was cheaper to train his own workers." His supervisor complained: "Our present staff of juveniles are excessively stupid. All of them combined have not as much common sense as would be required to keep a ton of pig iron from floating out to sea in a calm." (R. Conot, p. 258) I have no idea if Rossi is a sharp dealer. I am not saying he is! I am sure he is better at management and business than Edison was. My point is that the personal life and predilections of an inventor are no guide to the truth of his claims, or the extent of his genius. In their professional capacity, when it comes to presenting data, even the sharp dealers among scientists are often strictly honest. They depend upon accurate facts get the job done. Inaccuracy is the enemy. Generally speaking, in my experience, academic scientists have low ethical standards. As long as their actions have no effect on the technical veracity of their data, they feel free to plagiarize, circulate lies, and cheat on their taxes or their wives. Academic politics and battles for funding and parking spaces are their main concerns. They draw the line at faking data because that defeats the purpose. It is not a win. It is pointless, like cheating at solitaire. (A few academic researchers, such as the Korean geneticist H. W. Suk, do fudge data to get funding or win fame. By the way, you should see what happened to the people who caught him! Here: http://www.geneticsandsociety.org/article.php?id=1825. Just remember: no good deed goes unpunished.) - Jed
