Well - everyone who has followed this story for the last year (or twenty years for some of us) should perhaps go on record in the next few days with their well-considered predictions, as Terry has ventured. And not just a prediction but a rationale for the justifying their slant on the outcome of the 28th, with details based on what we have learned in following the LENR field as it has matured since shortly after the 1989 P&F 'pathological' bombshell.
We can then look back, on Oct 29 an thereafter, and perhaps learn something from the clarity of our ongoing thought process at understanding this field; and then analyze why we were either too optimistic, too pessimistic or right-on. Here is mine. Based on the last Rossi show-and-tell, and the fact that it was terminated early after about a four-hour stretch of run-time with minimal input, and looking at the rapid descent at the end of that run, my assumption is that an average unit will perform for a slightly longer period with little input - and then it invariably it goes into some kind of quiescent mode. An individual fat-Cat may run longer than 4 hours on the average run, and he probably expected at least 8 hours based on the original time schedule. But also - it was clear (to a few of us) that Rossi had most likely faced this exact problem before (rapid die-off), and knew that he could not resuscitate the reaction, once it starts to decline rapidly like that. That collection of facts forms the real reason that he wants a lot of units humming along in unison - since even if only a quarter (1/4th) of them are 'hot' at any given moment, those few essentially carry everything else. Perhaps he can revive most of them after a few hours quiescence - so that there are always a decent percentage which are 'hot'. We cannot even guess at all the ramifications yet. There is no indication how long a putative quiescent period would be before another hot run is possible. The problem is that if you force the reaction - as Vince Cockeram did years ago, then you will likely face the runaway problem and have the same kind of meltdown that Vince suffered. His experience is the best parallel that has any amount of comparative detail to this - at least in the public record. Based on that episode, and knowing that Rossi will again terminate the show-and-tell of October 28 after only a short time, probably after no more than 12 hours - I think it is fair to say that he could get up to a decent fraction of a megawatt in average power and a net of well over a megawatt-hour of net energy in total, possibly over two - but that he will again shut it down prematurely, and will still claim it as a grand success. My guess is that he will get the power level up to about the 250 kW level in the first 3-4 hours, and that he will average near or less than that power level for the next 8; following which, when the output starts to drop fast, he will terminate the show at about the 12th hour, with an average of about 200 kWhr over the entire 12 hour run, or a net output of 2.4 megawatt-hours delivered... and, again, of course he will call this a grand success. After all - he labeled this set-up as a "megawatt device" and (correct me if I am wrong on this precise label) NEVER does Rossi specifically call it a "megawatt hour" device. And if you assumed this, then you may be disappointed that this little semantic trick gives him a gigantic cushion to deliver much more than a net megawatt of output in a full 12 hour demo.... Which of course will not please everyone ... but Rossi will be gloating ... even if that the trailer couldn't warm a teapot if it goes quiescent for a longer period than expected... such as - if he had to start it all up again on the 29th. Jones -----Original Message----- From: Terry Blanton >> I certainly hope Rossi has already rehearsed the whole demo at 100% >> capacity. > Take it from an engineer. He tested it as soon as it was assembled. > He might not have run it at capacity; but, it's been tested. Look at > the corrosion on the module tested on Oct. 6. All that did not occur > on that day. > We don't build stuff to look at. :-) It will work on 10/28. I predict, based on numbers bashed around here, it will run at 800 kW. It looks like he has check valves on each module preventing blow back on non working modules. I hope he also has safety valves. T
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