> > I am afraid household electricity is just not going to get much cheaper - >> maybe 20-30% drop, but it probably will drop far more for industry. > > > I disagree. > > As I described in my book cost will drop by 60% at first and later by more > than 100%. That is to say, the overall cost of equipment will be less than > we now pay. Cold fusion generators will also serve as cogenerators, > replacing heating and air-conditioning equipment. When the technology > matures, the total cost of a cold fusion generator will be less than the > heating and air-conditioning equipment it replaces. > > - Jed >
We'll I've worked and researched in the utility electricity, and micro CHP (combined heat and power) industry off and on over the last 20 years, so if you want to argue the point you are going to need to justify your disagreement a whole lot better than by an appeal to (your own) authority :) Grid Supply: For current European prices check: http://www.energy.eu/#Industrial-Gas Of the european median small consumer price of electricity $0.24/kWh only about 30% of it is actual fuel cost ($0.08/kWh assuming 60% generation efficiency with $0.05/kWh gas price) - meaning about 70% of the home electricity cost is in generation and distribution. That won't change if the utility is still doing the production, after all the grid and generation is expensive to maintain, so even if the heat is free it still wouldn't drop the price by more than 30%. Domestic Supply: Currently MicroCHP (eg Whispergen or Microgen stirling) costs $10k+ for a house and requires at least annual maintenance, costing >$1000/year in capital depreciation and maintenance costs. Economics dictate that Micro CHP is sized and run according to heating load, with electricity a useful by product. However even with household gas prices ~30% of electricity prices ($0.075kWh vs $0.24kWh median) micro CHP it is not economic without large subsidies (I did an industry survey and report for my job last year). Yearly costs are similar to current electricity bill, hence poor uptake, and they still needing to pay for a grid connection as well to handle peaks. There is absolutely no way that you can make a domestic cold fusion device that can supply the 1kW average 10kW peak electrical power you need for less than the $700 per year (capital and maintenance cost) that your 60% price drop would require, even a conventional gas boiler costs not much less than that. On top of that you will need the grid or an expensive, limited life battery pack (required for emergencies and startup anyway if not grid connected), neither of which options is going to cost you less than $200/year. Capital costs for a mass produced LENR CHP system might halve from the $10k+ of current gas powered stirling engine CHPs, but you are still looking at replacing the heat source twice a year, and controlling a finicky and dangerous pressurised hydrogen system, so don't imagine you are going to drop price much if you go for in-house CHP LENR generation. Also if you think 5% efficient thermoelectric converters might be a cheaper option than heat engines then check the price of 5% efficient Bismuth Telluride thermoelectrics ($10k/kW) and imagine what a massive demand increase for very rare Tellurium would do for their economics. Nowhere in these numbers does there exist the margins required to drop consumer electricity prices by 60% even if the heat were free.
