In the thread about airplanes that convert to cars, Craig Haynie < cchayniepub...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > It's another degree of freedom. For those of us who are private pilots, > we have a tremendous range of territory at our finger tips. We can fly > 1,000 miles for a weekend trip, but many airports don't have rental cars > readily available, and the terms of the lease are such that it's > impractical to rent a car for a short period of time. I see your point. Okay, let us think about how this might work in the future with a combination of fully automatic taxis, both VTOL air cars and ground automobiles. These would not be air cars that transition to ground vehicles. They would be two separate vehicles, both designed for the purpose. Assume that air cars go about as fast as today's Cirrus aircraft, 400 km/h. While you're at it, assume they have built-in parachutes for the entire aircraft, like the Cirrus. We are talking about the distant future. The vehicles are completely automated. Parents think nothing of sending a six-year-old child up in one by herself. You could send one empty with no one on board carrying a package, or send one empty a hundred kilometers to some isolated place to pick up your Aunt Minnie. Assume that ground vehicles go up to 290 km/h in tunnels, or on surface roads at 30 km/h. I am talking about conditions starting 50 to 100 years from now, continuing for the next 300 years or so. I can't begin to predict the shape of technology thousands of years in the future. That's futile. I do not postulate anything we have not already discovered. Nothing like anti-gravity. Let us stick to wheeled vehicles, maglev, and aircraft that the Wright brothers would understand, plus -- of course -- advanced robotics and cold fusion. Suppose I am in Atlanta Georgia and I have business in Emmitsburg MD, 950 km north. Assume that people do not allow private air cars to land just anywhere, because they are disruptive. They make a lot of noise and wind and they kill wildlife. Assume they can only land at designated locations such as shopping malls that offer air service. Emmitsburg is a small town. You sometimes see crop dusting helicopters in the fields today. Naturally they have helicopter ambulances. But I do not think people would want small VTOL aircraft taking off and landing in the surrounding area on a regular basis. In this scenario, I drive a short distance to some local mall that offers air taxi service. I take an air taxi to Gettysburg, PA. in about 2 hours, 20 minutes. An automated ground taxi is waiting for me there. There are probably no taxis available in Gettysburg today, but there will be in the future because many elderly people in that area who do not get out often will not want to bother owning an automobiles. As I said, you will have the option to call a robot taxi that comes to your door in 15 min. which you can use all day if you like. These vehicles will be cheaper in any town will have a few of them available any time. Even people who own their own cars will want a few of them within 30 minutes in case their car needs repair, or friends & relatives come from out of town and everyone wants to go out somewhere, or in case you buy a bunch of furniture and you need the equivalent of a pickup truck. The cars resemble today's Zipcar more than a taxi -- the difference being you don't have to drive. Even if you are blind you can go anywhere you like by yourself. North of Gettysburg there our many Amish people who prefer not to own their own automobiles, because that disrupts their communities. They use taxi service and buses today. They are not opposed to the technology *per se*, but rather to the effects of it. I expect there will be Amish people hundreds of years in the future. Anyway, I get a taxi in Gettysburg and it drives 10 min. to Emmitsburg and drops me off. Or, for an additional fee, I tell it park somewhere nearby and come back later in the day when I call. I spend the day doing whatever it is I went there for. Visiting Aunt Minnie I suppose. Or lecturing at Mt. St. Mary's University. There is not a lot to do in Emmitsburg. In the evening I take another taxi to the Cozy Restaurant in Thurmont, which I highly recommend. (Really!) Suppose there is a shopping mall north of Frederick MD which is closer than going back to Gettysburg. After supper I would head south in the ground taxi, go to the shopping mall, and take an air taxi back to Atlanta. There are no round-trip tickets to worry about. You can go from point to point by whatever means is most convenient. You change your itinerary on the spur of the moment. You don't have to worry about where you leave the car. The car takes itself back to wherever it should go. There are no vehicles to reserve ahead of time, and no fixed schedule set by the airlines. If you have too many cocktails at the Cozy Restaurant, you may feel a little airsick but there is not such thing as DUI because no ever drives, except bicycles and horses. You can sleep the whole way back. I suppose there may be fast VTOL shuttle service between Atlanta and Washington DC (800 km). The vehicles will go much faster than the 400 km/h air car. They might even though 3000 km/h, making the trip in 20 min., compared to the air car 2:20 flight. Suppose these are large multi-passenger vehicles operated by airlines, departing every hour. I doubt this kind of air service could compete with air cars. By the time you go to the airport, check in, wait for the flight, get off at Washington DC and go to wherever it is you are going, it will take 2 hours anyway. Maybe if you are going to downtown Washington DC that would be a better choice. Most business trips to downtown areas will be replaced with teleconferencing. If you're going from Atlanta to Tokyo you would want to fly at Mach 4. I doubt that small air cars will reach such speeds in the next 300 years, although they might go faster than the Cirrus. Maybe up to Mach 0.8, today's airliner speed. Even limited to 400 km/h, for a destination within 1000 km I expect an air car would be more convenient. Even a ground car that goes through tunnels at 290 km/h might be more convenient for the trip from Atlanta to Emmitsburg. I expect there will be tunnels the whole way. Assuming they follow today's highway system they will add about 100 km to the trip compared to airplanes, and you may have to go slowly from Richmond through Washington DC. I expect that 100 years after the invention of air cars, large airports such as Atlanta's will be abandoned or greatly reduced in size. Air freight will all go from point to point; that is, from the PVC pipe factory or sawmill to Lowe's hardware and home improvement store. A place as large as Lowe's will probably be big to allow VTOL landings. If not, an automated freight VTOL will land within 20 km of the store, transfer the freight to an automated truck, and deliver in the middle of the night so that the traffic does not interfere with people traveling during the day. This sort of thing can be done with alternative energy, such as liquid fuel synthesized from solar or wind power. However it would be far cheaper, more convenient and better in every way done with with cold fusion. The one essential ingredient to this kind of transportation system is advanced computing, and robotics. Something far better than what we have now. I think it is inevitable that we will achieve this level of automation, probably within 30 to 50 years. - Jed
