It's another degree of freedom. For those of us who
are private pilots,
we have a tremendous range of territory at our finger tips. We
can fly
1,000 miles for a weekend trip, but many airports don't have
rental cars
readily available, and the terms of the lease are such that
it's
impractical to rent a car for a short period of time.
I see your point. Okay, let us think about how this might work
in the future with a combination of fully automatic taxis, both
VTOL air cars and ground automobiles. These would not be air
cars that transition to ground vehicles. They would be two
separate vehicles, both designed for the purpose.
Assume that air cars go about as fast as today's Cirrus
aircraft, 400 km/h. While you're at it, assume they have
built-in parachutes for the entire aircraft, like the Cirrus. We
are talking about the distant future. The vehicles are
completely automated. Parents think nothing of sending a
six-year-old child up in one by herself. You could send one
empty with no one on board carrying a package, or send one empty
a hundred kilometers to some isolated place to pick up your Aunt
Minnie.
Assume that ground vehicles go up to 290 km/h in tunnels, or
on surface roads at 30 km/h.
I am talking about conditions starting 50 to 100 years from
now, continuing for the next 300 years or so. I can't begin to
predict the shape of technology thousands of years in the
future. That's futile. I do not postulate anything we have not
already discovered. Nothing like anti-gravity. Let us stick to
wheeled vehicles, maglev, and aircraft that the Wright brothers
would understand, plus -- of course -- advanced robotics and
cold fusion.
Suppose I am in Atlanta Georgia and I have business in
Emmitsburg MD, 950 km north. Assume that people do not allow
private air cars to land just anywhere, because they are
disruptive. They make a lot of noise and wind and they kill
wildlife. Assume they can only land at designated locations such
as shopping malls that offer air service. Emmitsburg is a small
town. You sometimes see crop dusting helicopters in the fields
today. Naturally they have helicopter ambulances. But I do not
think people would want small VTOL aircraft taking off and
landing in the surrounding area on a regular basis.
In this scenario, I drive a short distance to some local mall
that offers air taxi service. I take an air taxi to Gettysburg,
PA. in about 2 hours, 20 minutes. An automated ground taxi is
waiting for me there. There are probably no taxis available in
Gettysburg today, but there will be in the future because many
elderly people in that area who do not get out often will not
want to bother owning an automobiles. As I said, you will have
the option to call a robot taxi that comes to your door in 15
min. which you can use all day if you like. These vehicles will
be cheaper in any town will have a few of them available any
time. Even people who own their own cars will want a few of them
within 30 minutes in case their car needs repair, or friends
& relatives come from out of town and everyone wants to go
out somewhere, or in case you buy a bunch of furniture and you
need the equivalent of a pickup truck. The cars resemble today's
Zipcar more than a taxi -- the difference being you don't have
to drive. Even if you are blind you can go anywhere you like by
yourself.
North of Gettysburg there our many Amish people who prefer not
to own their own automobiles, because that disrupts their
communities. They use taxi service and buses today. They are not
opposed to the technology per se, but rather to the
effects of it. I expect there will be Amish people hundreds of
years in the future.
Anyway, I get a taxi in Gettysburg and it drives 10 min. to
Emmitsburg and drops me off. Or, for an additional fee, I tell
it park somewhere nearby and come back later in the day when I
call. I spend the day doing whatever it is I went there for.
Visiting Aunt Minnie I suppose. Or lecturing at Mt. St. Mary's
University. There is not a lot to do in Emmitsburg.
In the evening I take another taxi to the Cozy Restaurant in
Thurmont, which I highly recommend. (Really!)
Suppose there is a shopping mall north of Frederick MD which is
closer than going back to Gettysburg. After supper I would head
south in the ground taxi, go to the shopping mall, and take an
air taxi back to Atlanta.
There are no round-trip tickets to worry about. You can go from
point to point by whatever means is most convenient. You change
your itinerary on the spur of the moment. You don't have to
worry about where you leave the car. The car takes itself back
to wherever it should go. There are no vehicles to reserve ahead
of time, and no fixed schedule set by the airlines. If you have
too many cocktails at the Cozy Restaurant, you may feel a little
airsick but there is not such thing as DUI because no ever
drives, except bicycles and horses. You can sleep the whole way
back.
I suppose there may be fast VTOL shuttle service between Atlanta
and Washington DC (800 km). The vehicles will go much faster
than the 400 km/h air car. They might even though 3000 km/h,
making the trip in 20 min., compared to the air car 2:20 flight.
Suppose these are large multi-passenger vehicles operated by
airlines, departing every hour. I doubt this kind of air service
could compete with air cars. By the time you go to the airport,
check in, wait for the flight, get off at Washington DC and go
to wherever it is you are going, it will take 2 hours anyway.
Maybe if you are going to downtown Washington DC that would be a
better choice. Most business trips to downtown areas will be
replaced with teleconferencing.
If you're going from Atlanta to Tokyo you would want to fly at
Mach 4. I doubt that small air cars will reach such speeds in
the next 300 years, although they might go faster than the
Cirrus. Maybe up to Mach 0.8, today's airliner speed. Even
limited to 400 km/h, for a destination within 1000 km I expect
an air car would be more convenient. Even a ground car that goes
through tunnels at 290 km/h might be more convenient for the
trip from Atlanta to Emmitsburg. I expect there will be tunnels
the whole way. Assuming they follow today's highway system they
will add about 100 km to the trip compared to airplanes, and you
may have to go slowly from Richmond through Washington DC.
I expect that 100 years after the invention of air cars, large
airports such as Atlanta's will be abandoned or greatly reduced
in size.
Air freight will all go from point to point; that is, from the
PVC pipe factory or sawmill to Lowe's hardware and home
improvement store. A place as large as Lowe's will probably be
big to allow VTOL landings. If not, an automated freight VTOL
will land within 20 km of the store, transfer the freight to an
automated truck, and deliver in the middle of the night so that
the traffic does not interfere with people traveling during the
day.
This sort of thing can be done with alternative energy, such as
liquid fuel synthesized from solar or wind power. However it
would be far cheaper, more convenient and better in every way
done with with cold fusion.
The one essential ingredient to this kind of transportation
system is advanced computing, and robotics. Something far better
than what we have now. I think it is inevitable that we will
achieve this level of automation, probably within 30 to 50
years.
- Jed
