Yes. Leaving aside nightmare scenarios like nanobot infestations and genetically modified diseases and the rest, sticking strictly to the economic consequences of computer and mechanical technologies: there's some evidence we're seeing these effects right now, in the unemployment numbers. I came up with the image below to suggest the sort of "self-perpetuating" or "positive feedback" nature of what may be going on.
The image uses a few concepts. One is "reach", by which I mean the ability of the lucky few winners using modern technology to supply the services that formerly required the work of many - "reach" is the consequence of the idea of "scalability" discussed in Taleb's book "The Black Swan". Reach causes concentration of wealth as the lucky few (e.g. Google) replace the services previously provided by (e.g.) many local newspapers. The image also relies on my belief that concentration of wealth in fewer hands tends to reduce overall economic activity, as explained in the blog entry I posted here previously. Accepting these ideas, we get the nasty positive feedback cycle shown in the image. Jeff On Sun, Oct 28, 2012 at 7:12 AM, Jones Beene <jone...@pacbell.net> wrote: > The Atlantic sets the stage for the 'scary season' (the election, not > Halloween) with a piece on machine intelligence, echoing Bill Joy's classic > article > > > http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/10/the-consequences-of-ma > chine-intelligence/264066/ > > No Joy here: "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us > <http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html> " > > http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html > > And now that the Governator is back on the streets, and the real Terminator > is being perfected faster than suspected ... > > http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=FFGfq0pRczY&feature=etp-pd-nxx-62 > > Woooo.... Just in time for the LENR power module to make it fully > autonomous > (as long as it avoids metal stamping presses)... > > ... so all in all - I'd have to opine that future is pretty scary, even > without hundreds of little gremlins and witches prowling the streets with > bags full of candy... > > ....and the scare may not be that far away - no matter who gets elected. >
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