Alain Sepeda <[email protected]> wrote:
> However as soon as we have a machine on the client table, and that the > advantages for the client are clear, nothing can block people to use it... > no lobbies, no regulation, no fear... > I think that's incorrect. Here in the U.S. we have powerful lobbies and corporations that can delay or possibly prevent useful technology for a long time. I will give some examples below, but first let me say this discussion has gone off the tracks. You, Mark Gibbs and others misunderstand what I had in mind. I was describing a situation that might emerge after cold fusion is demonstrated and everyone agrees the effect is real and that it can be made practical. I hope that capitalistic forces will then take over and make it a commercial success. That is what I described at ICCF17, in this paper: http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/RothwellJthefuturem.pdf I am cautiously optimistic that will happen. HOWEVER, looking at the history of technology, I am sure that it will not happen without a gigantic fight. As I said: "Once it becomes generally known that cold fusion is real I am certain the vested interests will spend billions of dollars to prevent commercialization. I find it inconceivable they would not do this." Here are some well-known examples of technologies that were delayed or prevented by vested interests. These were delayed for several years were several decades in some cases. Hand washing and other antiseptic proceedures proposed by Semmelweis. Delayed for about 30 years. Hand washing and other improved cleanliness standards in U.S. hospitals today. Proposed new standards have been delayed for about 20 years, killing roughly 90,000 people per year. Obstruction continues, with no end in sight. See: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/09/how-american-health-care-killed-my-father/307617/ Vaccinations, when they were discovered in the 18th century, with opposition continuing to the present day, in the U.S., India and elsewhere. This is why polio has not been eradicated, and why other infectious diseases are making a comeback. Anesthesia, opposed for religious reasons, albeit not for long. Transatlantic steamships replacing sailing ships. This was delayed for about 20 years. The Transcontinental Railroad. Although this was the most lucrative project in history, it met a great deal of resistance from businessmen in San Francisco and elsewhere for reasons that make no sense in retrospect. Pasteurization of milk in New York City. Delayed from 1860 to 1917 Safe coupling systems for railroad cars. Delayed for about 10 years and finally imposed by an act of Congress. Thousands of railroad workers were mangled or killed by coupling systems. Safe brakes and control systems for railroads. Seatbelts and other safety features and automobiles. Delayed from the 1920s until 1968, at a cost of ~10,000 lives per year. Improved engine efficiency in automobiles. Delayed until around 1975. Adequate brakes in SUVs. Delayed from the 1980s to the present. Still not implemented. Reduced consumption of cigarettes. Delayed until 1964. It has been known that cigarettes cause cancer since the 1600s. Wind turbines in natural gas to replace coal-fired electricity. The coal industry is presently fighting a rearguard action to delay or prevent the use of coal and natural gas power generation. Congressional representatives from coal mining districts have proposed laws to ban the use of wind turbines in the United States ostensibly because they kill birds. Safety features in nuclear power plants that might have prevented the accident at Three Mile Island, Connecticut Yankee, and Fukushima. These features would cost trivial amounts in some cases. The industry and regulators have fought them tooth and nail and continue to do so. At TMI the accident could have been prevented with a new valve sensor, some wire, and an indicator light. After the accident, the Federal engineer who recommended this change was fired, and the top management who refused to implement the change were rewarded with thousands of dollars and promotions. That sort of thing happens more often than people realize. In most cases these delays were actually harmful to the industries that caused them. For example, the dairy industry refused to pasteurize milk because it added a few pennies to the cost of a bottle of milk. This killed hundreds of thousands of infants, including one of my great grandmother's babies. This made mothers fearful of using milk and thus destroyed a large fraction of the market for milk. In every example listed here the new technology caused no harm and did not have to cause any company or industry to lose money. For example, the transition to steam ships was delayed by vested interests in sailing ships. The people making sailing ships were eventually bankrupted by steamship production. That was because they were foolish. They could have transitioned into the new technology, but instead they stuck to sailing ships, and they all went out of business. I know dozens more examples from many different industries. Read the history of business and you will find any number of them. People often act in ways contrary to their own best interests. Businessmen and other people are often irrational. Even though cold fusion will be enormously profitable and beneficial to humanity, I am certain that many powerful, wealthy people will be opposed to it. They will fight with every political and economic tool to prevent it. Many of them have billions of dollars to throw into the fight, and I am sure they will use that money. As I said, history is full of examples of this. In fact, it is hard to find an example of a beneficial new technology that did not meet strong opposition. The only examples you will find our technologies that had no pre-existing rival. That is, no competition. For example, when x-rays were discovered there was no opposition to them because there was no existing method of looking inside the human body. However, when the MRI was discovered many decades later, the existing x-ray industry fought long and hard to prevent the development of this competing system. In a few cases, vested interests did not realize they were threatened until it was too late for them to do anything about it. When airplanes were discovered there was no other means of flying, and railroads did not imagine that airplanes would ever compete with them so there was no opposition. People became aware of airplanes in 1908. That same year, Henry Ford began manufacturing the Model T car. Railroads did not initially oppose it because they did not take the discovery seriously. By the time cars began hurting railroad profits it was too late to stop the industry. Car owners were already lobbying local governments to build better roads. By the 1930s, railroads had lost a large fraction of their passenger business. So far, so far, cold fusion has avoided any opposition from vested interests because it has such a low profile. It is like the airplane from 1903 to 1908. No one takes it seriously, and most people are completely unaware that it exists. - Jed
