Edmund Storms <[email protected]> wrote:
> What is worse, the nature of the problem is too technical and complex for > most people to understand. > In the past, all problems were too complex for anyone to understand. In 1700 people did not even know that oxygen exists, and yet they ran giant cities, iron mills and so on. The trend is toward better understanding. We are learning more and more about our problems, and we have Big Data to account for things. (Big Data meaning more bytes of data than there grains of sand on all the beaches of Earth.) > This suggests still another problem. Has modern life become too complex > for mankind to control? > In many important ways, modern life is simpler than life used to be, and more comprehensible. Many things that were completely beyond our control are now well understood and controlled. Many things that were unpredictable are now predicted. Such as the weather. In 1938 a giant storm destroyed Long Island and killed 600 of people because no one knew it was coming. Last year's storm killed very few people because everyone could see it was coming. > Are we nearing the end when the consequences of technology will overwhelm > man's ability to respond properly? Or is this too pessimistic? > Much too pessimistic, and totally at odds with the trends of history. The last 400 years of technological and scientific progress have given us God-like knowledge and control over nature. There is no reason to think this trend will not continue. Our ability to respond has increased beyond all imagination. There is not a single technical reason why we cannot: * Eliminate fossil fuels and CO2 production, in a generation. * Reduce other pollution by a factor of 10. * Recycle most solid waste, with robot labor. * Transfer agriculture to indoor factories, freeing up land. We could produce ALL of the plant food consumed by people and domestic animals in North America in an area the size of greater New York City. By the time we got 10% toward that goal, the cost of food would be cheaper than it is from today's outdoor agriculture. The technological solutions already exist, even without cold fusion. We lack only the will and the imagination to use them. All of the environmental problems we face -- and all poverty and lack of education -- are caused by human failings. By foolish greed, fear, politics and lack of imagination. Science and engineering have not failed us. We have failed to use the fruits of our imagination. We have failed to use people's talents and skills. Since we managed to solve countless problems in the past, I am certain we can solve these problems now. I am not sure we *will* solve them, but I am sure that we can. - Jed
