On 09/30/2013 08:53 AM, Mauro Lacy wrote:
...
Assuming that the event took place at the beginning of AD 774, we obtain
(1870.6-774)/5.539 = 197.978, which is in excellent agreement. And
assuming the end of 774, we get (1870.6-774.9)/5.539 = 197.815, which is
still in good agreement.
Needless to say, unless more precise timing data is available, there's a
18% chance (1/5.539) that this result is just the effect of chance, and
chance alone. 18% is far from accepted scientific standards for
correlation, by the way (p-value <= 0.05, at the very least). A monthly
resolution for the event would provide an acceptable p-value
1/(12*5.539) = 0.015 to accept or reject the null hypothesis. In fact, a
2 or 3 months window for the event will still be considered fine.
Finally, the event can be a combined effect: Eta Car spectroscopic event
contributing to cause a major solar flare, which causes in turn the
sudden increase in C14 in tree rings. That would allow for a certain
delay in the C14 data, which would occur after (but not before), Eta
Carinae's event.
Regards,
Mauro
