Ok Jed, let me summarize what you believe. We have nothing to worry
about. We only need to keep doing what we are doing and everything
will work out. If China figures out how LENR works, the rest of the
world will know immediately and will able to compete without having to
do anything more. If Rossi makes the effect work, the knowledge can
be taught to industry immediately without important delay. In other
words, nothing I'm concerned about has any value. Just keep going down
the same path and stop complaining. Is that your message?
This being the case, I do not understanding why you are concerned
about CF not being supported. Your response to my concerns
demonstrates you think all will work out ok in the long run. Nothing
more needs to be done. We only need to wait untill Rossi or China
discovers how to make the effect work and we all will be saved without
any problems. So why do YOU complain about how CF is treated? What
would you do differently in view of your rejection of my concerns? Or
do you like to argue only for the sake of the challenge?
Ed Storms
On Jan 5, 2014, at 5:31 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote:
Edmund Storms <[email protected]> wrote:
Rossi clearly does not understand how the effect works. He was lucky
and is now trying to find out why.
No one is that lucky. He knows a lot, and he and his coworkers are
learning more every day.
We have no way of knowing what the Chinese have learned.
We do too! Mizuno and I know, because we spoke with Arata's
coworkers in Japanese. Mizuno coauthored their paper. Many Americans
know what the Chinese collaborating with Rossi are up to.
The threat is the possibility they will find out and use this
information more effectively than Rossi can.
I am sure they will use it more effectively than Rossi can. So will
Mitsubishi and General Electric. Rossi agrees with me about that.
This is a huge risk that I would expect would be taken seriously,
especially when the cost of countering the risk is trivial.
Of course it will be taken seriously. Once people realize that cold
fusion is real, everyone will take it seriously. They will be
spending a billion dollars a day on it.
That is nonsense. Americans are no better or worse at teaching or
learning than anyone else.
You miss the point Jed. I said nothing about the general ability to
learn, which is universal. The problem is teaching knowlege about a
particular subject.
There is practically no knowledge about cold fusion! Once serious
R&D begins, people will be learning more about it every week than
they now learn in a year. There will be 500,000 to a million world
class experts working frantically on this, just as there were on
railroads, automobiles, airplanes, nuclear energy, computers,
transistors and the genome when these technologies were hot.
That knowledge has a lifetime because a lot of it is not in print.
It will all be in print soon.
That which is in print is hard to find and difficult to understand.
This kind of knowledge is taught in university. No university
teaches LENR.
No universities taught about DNA or transistors in 1952 either. They
all did a decade later.
Even if you want to start the process, how many professors do you
think are available?
As many as you want. Professors are cheap. You can train thousands
of new ones in a short time.
I agree, the issue is how long it would take to rediscover the
understanding while China is running ahead.
No time at all. The time it takes to fly a top expert and his family
out of China to California, and have him cash a check for $5
million. Or $50 million. If you do not think that would happen you
know nothing about business.
Of course a Manhattan-type program might speed up the rest of the
world getting the knowledge after China put generators on the market.
R&D into cold fusion will far larger than the Manhattan project.
R&D into transistors was far larger. IBM's development of the IBM
360 computer cost more than the Manhattan project in constant
dollars.
And your point is???
My point is that a dozen Manhattan style R&D efforts will be
launched in the U.S., the EU, Japan, China. Trillions of dollars of
profit ensure this will happen.
We know that more bright physicists are in China than are in the US
or in any other country.
No, there are not. Anyway, the EU and the US outnumber them, and we
can train bright physicists as fast as they can.
If they are given the incentive to study LENR, which is not given in
the West, they will understand it sooner. This is simple logic you
cannot reject.
Suppose they do understand it sooner? We can catch up in a matter of
months. As I said, we can hire their best people if that is what it
takes. Or their second best people. How do you think the Japanese
and Chinese caught up with the West? It can be done far more quickly
now than it could in 1868, or 1975 when the Japanese decided to get
serious about making computers.
Technical information can no longer be kept secret. This is not 1900
or 1950.
This is not secret technology. This is IGNORANCE about a function of
nature. We are like a person from 1800 who came forward in time and
was confronted with explaining how a cell phone works.
At this moment, no one in China or Japan knows better than the
people in the U.S. If they do learn something, they will teach it to
us. All it takes is money to persuade them.
How long do you thing it would take to come up with an answer?
The flight time from Beijing to San Francisco, as I said.
They will figure out what to look for! Or they will hire Chinese
people who know.
Yes, they will try. The issue is scale.
We can match the scale of any R&D enterprise in the world.
Yes bright people would contribute if they have the incentive. This
incentive is not provided in the West.
IT WILL BE PROVIDED. That's my point. The incentive will consist of
a trillion dollars of profit, there for the taking. The absolute
dominance in every major heavy industry from automotive to
aerospace, to power generation. Everyone will see that. U.S. and EU
industrialists and Army Generals are not going to roll over and play
dead, or let the Chinese gain a two-year advantage in something like
that.
Many other people will understand the use of this technology and the
vital importance of it just as well as you and I do. They have never
heard of it at present.
Even with incentive, they would have to learn about the subject
before they could make a contribution. From whom do they get this
teaching?
From the Chinese, if they happen to be the ones who posses it.
Yes, that is true. I predict this will be too little too late.
You have no basis for that prediction. Post-WWII history shows that
you are wrong.
The West will wake up to this fact about a week after people in
China do.
Really?? If so, this will be the only example of leadership
learning anything so fast.
No, it isn't. When the airplane, the atomic bomb, transistors,
computers and silicon semiconductors were demonstrated, leadership
acted within weeks. Industrial, military and government leaders
worldwide convened meetings and reacted to these developments
immediately.
When the U.S. realized that the Japanese Zero fighter plane was in
some ways superior to our fighter aircraft, and they captured an
intact Zero in Alaska after the battle of Midway, they conducted
intense R&D to reverse engineer it and to learn all about its
strengths and weaknesses, and to devise counter-measures. They
wasted no time at all.
The country that can industrialize it first will have a huge
advantage.
Not true. The U.S. has no advantage in personal computers or cell
phones even though we were the first to manufacture them. The
advantage vanished in a few years.
Why must our leaders wait until the device is on sale at Wal-Mart?
They won't wait. They are not idiots. They are no stupider than the
Chinese leaders.
The issue is with timing and scale. These two factors are the
difference between a successful business and a failure.
Timing is less important than it used to be. It is much less
important with cold fusion than, say, computers, because no
standardization is needed. Being the second or third company to
enter a market is often an advantage these days. IBM did not keep
its dominance in personal computers for long.
- Jed
