Why does it matter who has the page on watchlist? One can also get the
"contagion" looking at recent changes or stumbling upon the change while
reading the page, or while looking at a subsequent diff e.g. by a vandal.
Also, unless you plan to try a contagion yourself (not a good idea),
you'll be looking at past data, but we don't have the watchlists for the
past.
Moreover, you'd need to find a way to establish a causation connection
between two similar edits in any case, or they could just both caused by
a coordinated effort like a policy change or a cleanup sprint or a
collaboration between two users. Speaking of which, an edit (especially
if repeated on multiple pages) can also cause "retortion" edits in
opposite direction on other articles, or policy changes in either
direction, so the "contagion" may not be caused directly but rather by
causing a coordinated effort, spreading either the virus or its antivirus.
Nemo
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