Last month, Tom Evslin, the co-founder of Internet service provider AT&T
Worldnet and voice-over-IP wholesaler ITXC, created quite a stir by
making the bold prediction that the twisted copper pair to the home
won't exist in 2013.
"By 2012 [there will be] no more reason to use our landlines--so we
won't," Evslin wrote in his blog. "I don't think the copper plant will
last past 2012. The problem is the cost of maintaining and operating it
when it has very few subscribers. Obviously [it's] a huge problem for
AT&T and Verizon. And an important social issue as well."
Those comments provoked quite a reaction from readers, most of which
were along the lines of, "Wha-huh?" Most people were eager to bet
against Evslin's prediction.
At the same time, his words echoed in my mind as I read recent
complaints from the Communications Workers of America and the West
Virginia Public Service Commission that Verizon Communications is
neglecting its copper plant as it focuses on fiber-to-the-home
deployment. The CWA told Virginia regulators that Verizon is foregoing
preventative maintenance on much of the state's copper lines and
ordering "Band-Aid repairs" for major problems. Verizon refutes that
charge that copper has, in essence, become its redheaded stepchild. But
those complaints highlight the way that copper becomes increasingly
onerous for Verizon as its fiber network grows. Copper lines will
require more care than passive optical networks and yield less revenue.
In some cases, it might behoove Verizon for that copper to fail sooner
rather than later to accelerate fiber migration. So I can't help but
wonder if Verizon would bet against Evslin. Or on him.
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