I was just thinking yesterday about a conversation I had with a
telephone guy just after I took over the old winfinity.com isp-bbs.
At that time ATT said they would be in every market, wirelesly. They
would put a little antenna on the corner of every house....
Who is putting little antennas on the corners of houses today?
:)
George
John Scrivner wrote:
I am guessing this prediction has been made by most anyone I know who
has been around for a while. I guess when someone "important" says it
though then it is news. I remember many years ago when Steve Stroh told
us that the phone companies as we know them and their copper plants were
going to die. He said they would fall unless the government stepped in
and saved them. Even then I had very little doubt that many people
shared that feeling. If you look at what is happening to copper plant
use the numbers lead to the same conclusions. People are migrating to
other platforms for voice. They use mobile phones and VOIP more and
more. I have not used a PSTN phone line now at home for over a year. I
don't miss it a bit.
Scriv
Peter R. wrote:
Last month, Tom Evslin, the co-founder of Internet service provider
AT&T Worldnet and voice-over-IP wholesaler ITXC, created quite a stir
by making the bold prediction that the twisted copper pair to the home
won't exist in 2013.
"By 2012 [there will be] no more reason to use our landlines--so we
won't," Evslin wrote in his blog. "I don't think the copper plant will
last past 2012. The problem is the cost of maintaining and operating
it when it has very few subscribers. Obviously [it's] a huge problem
for AT&T and Verizon. And an important social issue as well."
Those comments provoked quite a reaction from readers, most of which
were along the lines of, "Wha-huh?" Most people were eager to bet
against Evslin's prediction.
At the same time, his words echoed in my mind as I read recent
complaints from the Communications Workers of America and the West
Virginia Public Service Commission that Verizon Communications is
neglecting its copper plant as it focuses on fiber-to-the-home
deployment. The CWA told Virginia regulators that Verizon is foregoing
preventative maintenance on much of the state's copper lines and
ordering "Band-Aid repairs" for major problems. Verizon refutes that
charge that copper has, in essence, become its redheaded stepchild.
But those complaints highlight the way that copper becomes
increasingly onerous for Verizon as its fiber network grows. Copper
lines will require more care than passive optical networks and yield
less revenue. In some cases, it might behoove Verizon for that copper
to fail sooner rather than later to accelerate fiber migration. So I
can't help but wonder if Verizon would bet against Evslin. Or on him.
--
George Rogato
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