Clint Ricker wrote:
I'd agree on the doctors; however, distance learning is a pathetic
substitute for on-site teachers. Good teaching is more about
inspiring the person to want to learn rather than the passing on of
information--technology won't solve what is essentially a problem
created by us placing educational funding as a fairly low budget
priority.
Distance learning is not about K-8, it's about Adult Ed, Continued Ed,
or Specialized Ed.
> Forced wholesale access of the physical layer / network layer does
> absolutely nothing to increase availability and, in fact, actually
> hurts availabilty.
You are incorrect there. The plant company would need to keep building
out to increase revenue.
The Application side would want that as well.
I think you missed my point here. My point is that forcing telcos to
resell their network layer does absolutely nothing to connect
additional people. If I resell AT&T DSL to someone on AT&T's network,
they could have just as easily gotten it from AT&T.
So you think that CLEC's and ISP's have never actually brought the
Internet or a new service to anyone? That's striking. Yes the footprint
does not grow, but certainly the penetration does.
And without the revenue from the rented network, how would anyone build
new facilities?
Dynamic T1 and Integrated T1 were CLEC inventions.
VoIP didn't come to the masses from the ILEC's and neither did DSL or
dial-up.
AT&T is doing ADSL2 (although you won't get any more usable bandwidth
than currently available). I think the bigger question is why aren't
more CLECs rolling out ADSL2? Why did COVAD wait 5 years to start?
Why do they gripe and moan about how the FCC is killing the
"innovative" part of the industry instead of actually implementing
innovative technologies? 15Mb/s DSL would have been interesting 5
years ago. Given massive fiber rollouts and the upcoming DOCSIS 3
rollouts from the cable companies, 15Mb/s DSL will be too little, too
late.
ADSL2+ equipment just became reasonable - that's why it wasn't around 5
years ago.
AT&T is reselling Covad ADSL2 in its out of region areas.
The 6MB product in-region is sort of ADSL2.
I'm not saying that these aren't decent business models, btw, and
can't make people some dough. But, national policy is not structured
around making sure that an extra couple of CLECs or NSPs are cash
positive... running the same old tired copper to the same old
customers does not increase broadband penetration.
National policy! HA! It's about Innovation and Competition.
Would we have DSL today if not for Covad/Northpoint/Rhythms? DSL was
invented in Bell Labs in 1965!
RBOC's did not want to cannibalize their $1500 T1 revenue. (Then they
went the exact opposite way).
Metro-E over copper is, by and large, a disappointing technology
(getting good quality copper is too difficult by and large). In some
sense as well, copper just needs to die and be replaced by a better
medium (ie fiber or at least cable HFC plants).
That's not what I am seeing.
Isn't it? Copper needs to die as a physical medium...it's expensive
to maintain and is severely handicapped. I'm perhaps backtracking a
bit on my bandwidth points earlier, but we have reached pretty close
to the limit to what you can shove over a pair of copper. While we
have sufficient bandwidth for the time being, I believe, copper won't
be able to deliver the needed bandwidth for 10 years down the road...
Actually, the copper needs to stay where it is. Add fiber, but if
anything, the copper should be sold off to a CLEC, instead of
dismantling it. It cannot be rebuilt.
Does it hurt the ILEC? Heh...probably not all that much. But, are
CLECs really helping the consumer? I tend to argue no, by and
large...why IS CLEC market share so small? Why are independent ISPs
have so little market share?
Clint, I could spend days on this. For you even to ask this, ..... it
almost feels like you are trolling (or do I hear the clinking of ice?)
CLECs have killed themselves because they tended to think in quarterly
and yearly terms for P/L and investment. The cable companies and the
ILECS tend to think longer term and so have been able to win out in
the long term. NSPs pay ~$30/month to resell DSL service; $3,600 over
ten years to provide DSL service to a residence. That's enough money
to start financing a fiber buildout, and that's just some crummy DSL
service. Owning the physical infrastructure makes a huge difference,
something that CLECs, by and large, never learned, and just kept on
paying huge chunks of money to the ILEC rather than building their own
network and making themselves sufficient (in a lot of cases, it isn't
feasible, since you do have to have a certain market penetration for
it to be worthwhile.).
By and large, most CLEC's are run by Bell-head idiots. Most will be
entering BK in the next 18 months.
But even the ones who built network - L3, WilTel, GX and more - couldn't
execute a plan to pay back the debt.
There are a few that have built networks - NEON, Norlight, Fiberlight,
Coretel, CityNet - that are doing fine, because they knew exactly what
their market was - and executed well on a good strategy.
Most CLEC's and ISP's spend too much time selling to everyone just to
book revenue and add a sub - whether it is a good customer for you or not.
Yipes and Cogent built network. Clearwire too. I won't go into the BK
history of the 2 fiber guys, but if Sprint didn't jump in on Clearwire,
what would they have done in 2 years?
Put the efforts on getting more people involved in actually building
out networks and increasing REAL competition (yes, wireless does fit
in there to some degree).
The FCC can't even force the cellco's to build out all of the spectrum
they have hoarding since 1996. Nor has Congress, the FCC or any PUC been
able to force the ILEC's to actually live up to its promises for rate
increase, 272 relief, mergers, or build-out. So Clint please explain to
me HOW DO YOU FORCE A NETWORK BUILD OUT?
Oh, and where is that investment money coming from? Because once the
CLEC's start hitting BK, investment dollars will dry up. In fact, if you
watch VZ and T, you will see that their access to cheap debt for their
build outs has ended as well. And the RBOC's have to borrow more to
build out 3G / 4G. More debt heaped on top of their billions in debt.
BTW, you keep saying DOCSIS 3. Big deal. Collectively the MSO's have
$100B in debt from building out to DOCSIS 2. Where do you think that
investment money will come from for D3? That's like another $75B. And
The Street doesn't even value cableco stock as much as it values RBOC stock.
Clint Ricker
Kentnis Technologies
Peter Radizeski
RAD-INFO, Inc.
813.963.5884
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