It will just turn into 1999 all over again with businesses everywhere worried 
they won't be able to use the Internet so they bring in high priced consultants 
to show them how to transition to IPV6. 

Sent from my iPhone4

On Feb 7, 2011, at 8:27 AM, Fred Goldstein <fgoldst...@ionary.com> wrote:

> At 2/7/2011 08:01 AM, Jeremy Parr wrote:
>> On 7 February 2011 02:49, Justin Wilson <li...@mtin.net> wrote:
>> We are not out of IPv4 addresses.  The unallocated pool is exhausted.  There 
>> is a difference.  Think of it in terms as water from a well.
>> 
>> You have all of these people bringing water up from the well (the water is 
>> ipv4 addresses).  These people are storing these addresses in buckets, 
>> bottles, etc. and distributing them to others.  One day the well runs dry.  
>> This does not mean you are out of water because you have all these people 
>> out there who have bottled water they can "sell" to others.  They just can't 
>> go back to the well and get more.  What they have is what they have.
>> 
>> 
>> As someone else said, the fat lady has not yet sung, but she is on stage and 
>> the curtain is being lifted. This is a very real problem and does need to be 
>> addressed. 
> 
> No, it's not a real problem.  I liken it to the exhaust of homesteads in the 
> past century.  You used to be able to go to a land office and ask for your 40 
> acres.  Then they ran out.  But you could still buy a farm from somebody who 
> previously had a homestead.
> 
> The B-team kidz who developed IPv6 (if you're too young to remember the IPNG 
> process in the 1990 time frame, don't attack my characterization) did not 
> think much about transition, and forgot about compatibility.  The resulting 
> transition plan is dual stack, meaning that you need to run IPv4 until 
> everyone is running IPv6.  Since IPv4 necessarily outperforms the higher 
> overhead IPv6, there's little reason to not use v4.  Since you thus need v4 
> addresses anyway, the market will reallocate them, just as the market 
> reallocated farmland.  If there turns out to be some real scarcity in the 
> future, then the price will rise, and IPv4 addresses will be used more 
> efficiently (more NAT, more use of private address space, etc.), and more 
> large-block holders will release some to the market.
> 
> Funny how much Frame Relay got done with a 10-bit address space.
>  --
>  Fred Goldstein    k1io   fgoldstein "at" ionary.com   
>  ionary Consulting                http://www.ionary.com/ 
>  +1 617 795 2701
> 
> 
> 
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