Pakistan, India to slug it out for top UN slot?
Editorial | Daily Times | June 16, 2006
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006%5C065C165Cstory_16-6-2006_pg3_1
The current UN secretary-general, Kofi Annan, is scheduled to step down at the
close of this year when his second five-year term ends. Mr Annan, who has done
good work in the face of tremendous pressure from the United States and its
allies, had got the job when his predecessor, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, was denied
a second term under pressure from the United States. Now the race is on for his
successor.
Two countries, among others, vying to place their candidates in the top slot
are archrivals Pakistan and India. By all reports, India has signed and
sealed the deal with Shashi Tharoor, currently UNs undersecretary-general for
information. Pakistan, on the other hand, is weighing its options with Prime
Minister Shaukat Aziz, former head of the UN Population Fund Dr Nafis Sadik,
who is presently serving as the secretary-generals special envoy on HIV/Aids,
and the present Pakistani ambassador to the United Nations, Munir Akram.
It is legitimate for Pakistan or any other country to try and place one of its
nationals at the apex of the UN. However, like in all contests, it is important
to go in with some hope of success. What might be the basis for Pakistans
attempt to put up a candidate, we do not know. What we do know is that it is
likely to be very hard. Normally, the contest is less about individual states
and more about regional consensus on a candidate. Additionally, since the
decision in this regard is taken in the Security Council and the veto-wielding
states are very important any one of the five can veto a candidate the
candidate has to be approved by all five permanent members. Africa has proved
good at developing a regional, indeed a continental consensus on most issues,
and then bargaining on that platform. The very fact that both Pakistan and
India are vying for the top UN slot means such consensus does not exist in
South Asia.
Canada has recently circulated a paper among member-states calling for some
basic changes in the selection procedure. Three basic changes pertain to
forming a search committee to identify candidates; holding informal sessions
where UN member states can pose questions to the candidates; and defining a
list of qualifications or criteria for the potential candidates. The Canadian
proposal also seeks to diminish the role of the Security Council and give more
weight to the General Assembly; in other words, to open up the contest and
bring more states in the ambit of the selection procedure. Canada, it seems,
wants a more representative and transparent selection method.
Irrespective of whether the Canadian proposal will see the light of day, it
does indicate the pitfalls in the current procedure. Russia has already
indicated that it is not interested in changing the way in which selections
have been carried out thus far. It makes sense from the viewpoint of the
permanent five to keep the procedure closed, narrow and confined to the elite
club. But within the club, it must also be noted, selection becomes a web of
deals and compromises. If Pakistan is really serious about making a bid,
Islamabad would need to see what its chances are of winning the office. If it
has placed its candidate simply because India plans to do so then it has made a
bad and hasty choice. India definitely stands a better chance, not only because
of its strategic partnership with the US but also because others in the club
are likely to go along with the US. Its candidate, Mr Tharoor, has been at the
UN for a fairly long time and if India can win for him support from
the P-5, Mr Tharoor could get the top slot fairly easily. Pakistan might be
thinking of winning the office by nominating a high profile person but the
profile of the candidate is not the foremost factor in winning the office. Mr
Tharoor, who had earlier been saying that he was not interested in the job has,
for sometime now, become less committal on the issue. He has indicated that if
India were interested in supporting him, he will have no qualms in running for
the office.
Some people in Pakistan might think that having an Indian as UN
secretary-general may be disastrous for Pakistans positions on various issues
but this line of thought tends to ignore the internal dynamics of the job. At
the other end of the spectrum, some analysts might say that instead of
contesting against India, Islamabad could perhaps offer New Delhi a deal and
extract a quid pro quo for supporting Indias candidate for the top UN office.
This argument ignores the possibility that Pakistan may not be in a position to
influence the chances of a candidate nominated by India. As we have implied,
the decision primarily comes from P-5 and Pakistan is not part of that club.
However, it could still sound India out on this issue. If New Delhi really
thinks that the withdrawal of Pakistans candidates could brighten the chances
of its own, it (India) may well be amenable to cutting a deal with Pakistan.
Islamabad could make that redound to its advantage within the bilateral
normalisation process that is going on between the two sides.
If, however, this is not possible and Pakistan wants to press ahead with the
contest, then Islamabad should ensure that it is going into the arena fully
prepared. *
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