There's an old, insightful joke about "what is the best price
to sell barrels of oil for", which states that it's something
like "$100, $100, $100, $100, $20, $20, $100, $100, $100....."
At $100 everyone is eager to turn up production and do things
like hydraulic fracturing. At $20, there's a lot of hurt in
those same industries. There is a lot of political and
economic force in the ability to effectively increase and
decrease the rarity of a commodity, and as a side effect,
it's price, with a turn of a valve. With additional US
sources coming online, and OPEC deciding not to cut
production, there's now a glut in the market. The question
is ... at what level is this sustainable stateside? I
haven't seen a good analysis of the impact of these lower
crude prices on domestic production and more importantly our
willingness to invest in growth of our production capabilities.
Personally, I have mixed feelings. I like the price of gas
when I get to the pump, but I also sell into the oil
industry, which I sure hope continues to drill wells, since
it's very good for my bottom line.
-forrest
On Tue, Jan 13, 2015 at 6:58 PM, Caleb Knauer
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
Yep. Shuts down the oil sands (for a bit), slaps
Russia/Venezuela in
the face, cranks down on the mid-tier producers like
Nigeria trying to
squeeze into the market, etc. It's multiple birds with
one stone. US
oil production will drop, oil sands bubble will pop, and
all sorts of
gloom and doom until prices naturally go back up and we
spin up
production again. The oil guys will take a hammering and
I feel bad
for them, but all bubbles burst. A lot of Americans will
have a net
benefit. Macroeconomics is complex.
On Tue, Jan 13, 2015 at 8:40 PM, Jason McKemie
<[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
> From what I've read the drop is pretty much exclusively
because of OPEC.
>
>
> On Tuesday, January 13, 2015, Erich Kaiser
<[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>>
> wrote:
>>
>> I think a lot of the low prices are due to abundance
of oil right here in
>> the US from Fracking and Tar sands from Canada. I bet
eventually when the
>> additional pipeline capacity is completed it may
drive things even lower,
>> but that is just my thought.
>>
>> It would be nice if they could do the same with grain.
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Jan 13, 2015 at 12:53 PM, That One Guy
<[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>>
>> wrote:
>>>
>>> I dont know how petroleum stores, the costs of
operating, etc. But I look
>>> at it as right now being a great time to get in on
it, when the rubber band
>>> snaps, you would already be at peak production
capacity, without the export
>>> and shipping to get it to its destination, in North
America at least. This
>>> is an artificially deflated market, it cant be
sustained since it is
>>> inherently and artificially inflated market.
>>>
>>> On Tue, Jan 13, 2015 at 12:19 PM, CBB - Jay Fuller
>>> <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> The investment has already been made to build the
wells. I know it
>>>> would suck, but why not shut them down until the
price goes up again, then
>>>> just resume production? Even under new ownership?
Doesn't sound like a
>>>> permanent problem to me...
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>>> From: Bill Prince
>>>> To: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
>>>> Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2015 10:23 AM
>>>> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Gas Prices
>>>>
>>>> It's Saudi Arabia trying to squeeze out all the
marginal producers.
>>>> Initially it will be Russia and some of the other
marginals like Iraq &
>>>> Iran.
>>>>
>>>> Pretty sure the shale oil and tar sands guys are
hurting big time right
>>>> now.
>>>>
>>>> bp
>>>> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
>>>>
>>>> On 1/13/2015 8:03 AM, Chuck McCown wrote:
>>>>
>>>> I wonder what is really driving the price down.
Fracking, OPEC
>>>> diaspora, CAFE improvements, Russia problems ???
>>>>
>>>> From: Jeremy
>>>> Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2015 8:54 AM
>>>> To: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
>>>> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Gas Prices
>>>>
>>>> Thanks Obama! (he gets blamed for EVERYTHING, right??)
>>>>
>>>> On Tue, Jan 13, 2015 at 8:41 AM, Josh Luthman
>>>> <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Same up here in Ohio.
>>>>>
>>>>> Josh Luthman
>>>>> Office: 937-552-2340 <tel:937-552-2340>
>>>>> Direct: 937-552-2343 <tel:937-552-2343>
>>>>> 1100 Wayne St
>>>>> Suite 1337
>>>>> Troy, OH 45373
>>>>>
>>>>> On Jan 13, 2015 10:35 AM, "joseph marsh"
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>>
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> 1.75 here in my area
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Jan 13, 2015 9:35 AM, "Vlad Sedov"
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> $1.50 to $1.55 in oklahoma city.. crazy.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> vlad
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 1/13/2015 9:32 AM, Travis Johnson wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I never thought I would see gas prices this low.
We have stations at
>>>>>>>> $1.71/gallon in our area right now. :)
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Travis
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> All parts should go together without forcing. You
must remember that the
>>> parts you are reassembling were disassembled by you.
Therefore, if you can't
>>> get them together again, there must be a reason. By
all means, do not use a
>>> hammer. -- IBM maintenance manual, 1925
>>
>>
>
