Absolutely - I meant on a timescale of 50+ years, we simply can't imagine what electronics might be available in 50+ years. From a raw bandwidth perspective and basic parameters like dB loss/km and frequencies available from 1270 to 1610nm, I can't see any reason why a two strand active-E singlemode deployment today couldn't work with new electronics 100 years from now.
For example if the standard residential active-E CPE is 200Gbps full duplex in a 16QAM modulated coherent signal in 25 years from now. But I wonder if we will get to a situation where today's state of the art fiber is as obsolete as the very earliest singlemode cables laid in the US northeast in the early 80s, which now require all sorts of special funky electronics, dispersion compensation and additional 3R regen hardware to function correctly. There's a number of older submarine fiber cables that have been taken out of service because the subsea repeaters can't be effectively used for anything better than, say, 40 wavelengths x OC-12 or OC-48 per wavelength, which is a tiny amount of capacity in the modern era. http://www.jeffhecht.com/chron.html On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 3:37 PM, Bruce Robertson <br...@pooh.com> wrote: > You can always change the electronics. It's only glass - lots of ways to > light it up. Changing the electronics is the cheap part. > > On 5/3/16 3:34 PM, Eric Kuhnke wrote: > > I don't disagree with you but I do wonder what the ultimate life of modern > singlemode fiber (G.652.D) is, assuming it's not physically damaged. Could > be more than 100 years? > > The oldest outside plant fiber that's still currently in use is, as far as > I know, some of the 9/125 that was installed between Boston and New York in > the early 1980s. But that stuff is very different from even a modern > singlemode from the dotcom 1.0 boom times around 1998/1999. A significant > amount of the MFN/Abovenet/360/Zayo fiber in Seattle dates from that time, > right around the year 2000, and there's no problem using it with modern > DWDM systems. > > > > On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 3:28 PM, Bruce Robertson <br...@pooh.com> wrote: > >> That's a nice developer! By them lots of drinks and steak dinners. If >> you don't have the $150-$200k handy, beg, borrow or steal it. Preferably >> not borrow... that hurts your return for the term of the loan. But it's >> still worth it for an asset that will be performing 100 years from now. >> >> On 5/3/16 3:23 PM, Sean Heskett wrote: >> >> As for ROI the developer wants to give us an exclusive right and not put >> in copper for phone or TV ;) The take rate should be pretty high because >> their other option will be our wireless service. >> >> Sean >> >> >> On Tuesday, May 3, 2016, Chuck McCown < <ch...@wbmfg.com>ch...@wbmfg.com> >> wrote: >> >>> You will probably get 80% if you are the best value. >>> And you don’t the full costs for homes that don’t take the service. No >>> CPE, no enclosure, no drop, no sfp. >>> >>> Say $2500/customer. >>> >>> Say you clear $40/month. >>> >>> 40*12=480 >>> 480/2500 = 19.2% return from day one forever. >>> >>> What kind of mutual fund will give you a return like that? >>> >>> *From:* Eric Kuhnke >>> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 03, 2016 3:10 PM >>> *To:* af@afmug.com >>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] potential FTTH build >>> >>> That math assumes an immediate 100% takeup rate... >>> >>> On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 2:04 PM, Josh Luthman < >>> j...@imaginenetworksllc.com> wrote: >>> >>>> 1630/65 = 25 >>>> >>>> Internet isn't going away, it's like water and power. The next 25 >>>> months and the 25 months after that... >>>> >>>> >>>> Josh Luthman >>>> Office: 937-552-2340 >>>> Direct: 937-552-2343 >>>> 1100 Wayne St >>>> Suite 1337 >>>> Troy, OH 45373 >>>> >>>> On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 5:01 PM, Eric Kuhnke <eric.kuh...@gmail.com> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>>> I don't see how the math works (at $150k and 92 homes) if the cost per >>>>> unit served is $1630 per house. And your initial penetration rate will be >>>>> far, far less than 100% of homes for monthly services. Even after 3-4 >>>>> years >>>>> a significant percentage may never sign up. Where's the ROI? >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 11:49 AM, Chuck McCown <ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> Figure one handhole per 2 homes. So 46 handholes. >>>>>> >>>>>> 1.25” between all handholes. >>>>>> .75” duct from each handhole to each dwelling for drops. >>>>>> You can run 144 count fiber for spares. >>>>>> Drop down to 96 or 48 count as it tapers going down the runs. >>>>>> >>>>>> You will need a cabinet with a distribution panel, electronics, >>>>>> batteries. >>>>>> It will need power. >>>>>> >>>>>> To go cheap, use a large cisco router with SFPs ports and SFP to each >>>>>> dwelling with a media converter at the ends. >>>>>> Or put in Calix. You can go GPON or Active. With something this >>>>>> small, I would do Active. >>>>>> >>>>>> You will have $150 to $200K in before you are done. >>>>>> >>>>>> *From:* Sean Heskett >>>>>> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 03, 2016 12:38 PM >>>>>> *To:* af@afmug.com ; memb...@wispa.org >>>>>> *Subject:* [AFMUG] potential FTTH build >>>>>> >>>>>> Hello, >>>>>> >>>>>> We are in talks with a developer who is planning a subdivision on a >>>>>> ~50 acre lot for 92 homes and he wants us to deliver FTTH. Is there >>>>>> anyone >>>>>> on this list who would like to consult with us so that we can get the >>>>>> plan >>>>>> done right from the get go? The developer will be doing all the >>>>>> trenching >>>>>> and conduit etc., we will be doing all the electronics and customer >>>>>> service >>>>>> etc. >>>>>> >>>>>> Best regards, >>>>>> >>>>>> Sean >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >> >> > !DSPAM:2,5729279660848397412542! > > >
