Stephan, After reading your plan of action, I have a lot of doubts about what you want to do. People have tried similar approaches before and in my opinion, they never work. Basically, you want to REACT to some current prices and make decisions on entry and exit points. Also, you talk about closing a trade when you have reached a certain gain or loss. All these things will not really work simply because every time you react to the market it is too late. Even if you identify inflections on a price curve by the time you are able to place a trade the price has moved away enough that you will not be able to realize a gain. The only hope is to have some predictive algo, it can be done and in my opinion, are the only algos that really work (at least on paper). You have to still deal with slippage and costs but these can be addressed more easily if you have a predictive algo. But do a lot of backtesting with your ideas and you will find out. My experience is that no matter what others will tell you, you need to find out these things by yourself to build intuition. But while I hope you will find the holy grail soon, the reality is to find a good universal trading system is a very damn difficult problem, many the most difficult problem of all. Giovanni
On Fri, Sep 23, 2022 at 1:58 PM stefan.reich.maker.of.eye via AGI < agi@agi.topicbox.com> wrote: > *Step 1: Position closing algorithm.* > > On new ticker value x of currency $coin do: > p = get our open position for $coin > if p exists: // relativeValue is the position's PnL in percent under > leverage 1 > p.relativeValue = (x/p.openingPriceWithFees-1)*p.direction*100 > p.maxRelativeValue = max(p.maxRelativeValue, p.relativeValue) > pullbackThreshold = p.maxRelativeValue-pullback(p) > > // LOSS (accept loss to circumvent risk escalation) > if p.relativeValue < -lossLimit: > close p > > // SPONTANEOUS HAPPY CLOSE (position is positive & user-definable > criterion is fulfilled) > if p.relativeValue > minReasonableProfit and shouldHappyClose(p): > close p > > // PULLBACK CLOSE (when current value falls significantly below the > all-time high) > if pullbackThreshold > 0 and p.relativeValue < pullbackThreshold: > close p > > > We have *3 configuration options*: > > - *lossLimit *- maximum accepted loss before leverage > - *pullback*(p) - maximum accepted relative pullback before closing a > positive position > - *shouldHappyClose*(p) - a user-supplied function that can randomly > return true for a position (that is in the plus!) to have it closed > immediately. There can be different reasons to do this. > > > *Step 2: Position opening algorithm.* > > Now, the interesting thing is how to define the position opener. > > After all, closing a position is basically just milking the pig. You want > to get as much out as you can, but it's not that complicated of a task. > > Opening a position, however, is like finding the pig among hundreds of > animals that look like pigs but don't actually give milk. > > *Anyone still following? :D* > > Anyway, my suggestion for the position opener - the magic piece that gives > us the short and long signals! - is to simply open a position in the mind > every time something happens to the ticker price. We also close these > positions (mentally) when the above algorithm says so. > > And when any one of these positions becomes suitably positive, we > basically assume the trend will continue and actually open a position of a > very similar kind in real life. > > That might not be all there is to it though, I have a feeling the actual > solution is a little more complicated still. > > *Step 3: Optimize the parameters* > > Remember, in the beginning we defined 3 parameters (2 of which are even > functions). We should clearly just try different values for these and see > how much profit we get in the simulation. This should be done for each > crypto currency. > > A clear plan, right? Let's go then!! > *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + > delivery options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> > Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Ta2a8c93c499a68be-M5dae5cd93622425911c048f4> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Ta2a8c93c499a68be-M2e471a36e1842b5584172317 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
