I suppose I'm being naïve but I meant - is the date of things fixed? For example the date when the DOW will hit 30K. I suppose that's the same questions as to whether the universe is deterministic. So when running a proto-AGI dynamical systems predictor app you'd have to say:
C:\ProtoAGIApps\DSPredictor.exe "Singularity Date" /non-deterministic -or C:\ProtoAGIApps\DSPredictor.exe "DOW 30K Date" /deterministic :) The technological shifts I'm talking about - most of us will agree that if the Singularity is an event it will be a rather big one. That would imply some things happening early on leading up to the climax? These things might be dynamical systems shifts if the predicted date of occurrence has dynamical behavior, the shifts being perceptible relationship changes between people and technology. IOW some weird stuff happens every once in a while that isn't normally there like... brief and sudden perturbations or slippages... I'm looking into prediction in general so... not an expert here :) Probably everything is in relation to past/present so non-deterministic... which changes the predictor... or does it... ? BTW anyone notice some strange slippages recently? Or just enjoying the eggnog :) John > -----Original Message----- > From: Matt Mahoney via AGI [mailto:[email protected]] > Sent: Saturday, December 27, 2014 5:47 PM > To: AGI > Subject: Re: [agi] Ten Years to the Singularity If We Really Really Try? -- > New/old essay collection of mine published via Humanity+ Press > > On Sat, Dec 27, 2014 at 11:24 AM, John Rose via AGI <[email protected]> > wrote: > > Is the date of the Singularity or any future date for that matter hardcoded > in time? > > Remember we are talking about the future. The future is hard to predict. All > we can do is extrapolate from past experience and make guesses that > become less accurate over time. > > Moore's Law has been pretty consistent over the last 50 to 100 years. > If we suppose that it continues at the present rate of increasing computing > power by a factor of 10 every 5 years, then global computing power (now > 10^20 OPS, 10^22 bits), will surpass 10^10 human brains > (10^26 OPS, 10^24 bits) in 2045. > > A human body has 10^13 cells, each with 10^10 bits of memory encoded in > DNA. Based on the 1 kg of food you eat each day, your body performs about > 10^18 molecular OPS on DNA and RNA bases and amino acids. Thus, Moore's > Law will surpass the computational power of all human bodies > (10^28 OPS, 10^33 bits) in 2070. It will surpass the computational power of > the biosphere (10^31 OPS, 10^37 bits) in 2090. > > The sun emits 3.8 x 10^26 W. This will support 10^48 OPS at the > thermodynamic limit (kT ln 2 ~ 10^-22 J/op) at the CMB temperature of 3K. > To reach this in 2155 at Moore's law predicts, we will need to build a Dyson > sphere at a radius of 10,000 AU. Anything beyond this will require > interstellar > travel, and thus a slowing of Moore's law by speed of light delays. > ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
