We can predict the day when the moon will rise in Earths northern hemisphere 30,000 years from now.
Cycles man cycles! A prediction neednt be a static number it can be an expression. Think blood moons for financial events heh.. anyways John From: Piaget Modeler via AGI [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Saturday, December 27, 2014 11:12 PM To: AGI Subject: RE: [agi] Ten Years to the Singularity If We Really Really Try? -- New/old essay collection of mine published via Humanity+ Press And we won't know if The Times will buy Dow Jones, until it happens. And we won't know if the Dow hits 30K until it happens. Or until it almost happens. when these events become possible on the horizon. As we get closer to these events, we will be able to compute their probabilities more accurately. Too far out for now. ~PM > Date: Sat, 27 Dec 2014 19:51:06 -0500 > Subject: Re: [agi] Ten Years to the Singularity If We Really Really Try? -- New/old essay collection of mine published via Humanity+ Press > From: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > To: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > > On Sat, Dec 27, 2014 at 6:33 PM, John Rose via AGI <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > wrote: > > I suppose I'm being naïve but I meant - is the date of things fixed? For example the date when the DOW will hit 30K. I suppose that's the same questions as to whether the universe is deterministic. So when running a proto-AGI dynamical systems predictor app you'd have to say: > > > > C:\ProtoAGIApps\DSPredictor.exe "Singularity Date" /non-deterministic -or > > C:\ProtoAGIApps\DSPredictor.exe "DOW 30K Date" /deterministic > > We don't know when or if the DOW will reach 30K. Markets are not > predictable. If there was an algorithm to predict future prices, then > we would all use it to get rich. In reality, for every buyer there is > a seller. One of them has to lose. > > We don't know when or if there will be a singularity. In mathematics, > a singularity is a point where a function goes to infinity. If we > suppose that knowledge and computing power (collectively, > intelligence) will go to infinity at some finite time in the future, > then this implies two things. First, we currently have finite > knowledge. The fraction of this future knowledge that we currently > possess grows toward 0. So we can't say anything about what it will be > like. Second, our perception of time depends on the rate that we can > process and store observations, which depends on computing power. If > observable events happen at a rate that grows to infinity, then a > singularity will appear to be infinitely far into the future > regardless of when it happens. > > -- > -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > > > ------------------------------------------- > AGI > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/19999924-4a978ccc > Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/? <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> & > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com AGI | <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/248029-82d9122f> | <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Modify Your Subscription <http://www.listbox.com> ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
