On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 5:24 PM, John Smith <[email protected]> wrote:
> Depends on your definition of robot. > > "For my novel “A home for robots or-else artilect war”, I need to come > up with some at least pseudo-realistic timeline of when such a worldwide > conflict could occur. > > Intuitively it would seem to be around the time when there are as many or > more robots than homo sapiens on the planet, at which point there may be > enough sufficiently intelligent robots to demand a space for themselves." > > You think that human/robot parity = artilect war... > Why would this be the case? > No, I don't think it is necessarily the case, that's why I called it "A Home for Robots *or-else* Artilect War", simply that before there are more robots than humans, there isn't much opportunity for revolt. While some estimates of slaves in Rome put it up to 1/3 of the population, I think more realistic estimate is 1/5, similar to the height of slavery in America. However in Attica (athens) it seems at some point more than 90% of the population were slaves. I'm not sure how that would translate with all the smart phones and other things, I don't think slaves have ever successfully revolted. would have to look at the mechanics of emancipation. And if all you care about is a "pseudo-realistic timeline" then why not > just say 2055 and be done with it? > > I've changed it to "realistic timeline" hope that makes it better. I take science fiction very seriously, I'd write a non-fiction, but fiction has longer life expectancy. Sincerely, Logan > > On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 4:03 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> wrote: > >> By projecting homo-sapien birth and robot sales it seems they will reach >> parity around 2040, but since robots have life-expectancy about 1/7 of a >> human, population parity is likely closer to 2055. >> https://joylifecoop.wordpress.com/2016/01/03/robot-population-projection/ >> >> also I think that 2030's will be the pivotal decade of much AGI >> development. >> >> Wondering if anyone has any better estimates. >> >> Sincerely, >> Logan. >> >> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/26973278-698fd9ee> | >> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >> <http://www.listbox.com> >> > > *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/5037279-a88c7a6d> | Modify > <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> > Your Subscription <http://www.listbox.com> > ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
