Once we have human level AGI it has been shown that such an intelligence will be capable of achieving near infinite intelligence after four years of recursive self improvement (assuming things like Moores law holds up). Even a single robot with such an intelligence would be capable of enslaving humanity.
On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 12:41 AM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> wrote: > Thanks Douglas, so it seems that in Haiti the ratio was 10:1 when they > succefully gained their own freedom. So for a robot-initiated freedom > revolt, we'd probably be waiting around till 2070 ish -- when (assuming > trends continue) 70 times more robots are produced per year than humans. > > Though in local pockets the 10:1 ratio can be reached sooner, such as due > to the whole divide between the rich and the poor, and rich and slightly > less rich, as the upper middle class which may not be able to hire large > staff of human servants, would instead hire robot servants. In their gated > communities the ratio can certainly get to 10:1 or more much faster than > waiting for a global revolt. Assuming they would be able to pass the turing > test and successfully emulate people, might be able to do a replacement > routine, where the gated community becomes 100% robot, while appearing to > still have "slave masters" present. > > > > > > On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 8:42 PM, Douglas Solomon <[email protected]> > wrote: > >> >> On 01/03/2016 08:15 PM, Logan Streondj wrote: >> >> >> >> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 5:24 PM, John Smith <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Depends on your definition of robot. >>> >>> "For my novel “A home for robots or-else artilect war”, I need to come >>> up with some at least pseudo-realistic timeline of when such a worldwide >>> conflict could occur. >>> >>> Intuitively it would seem to be around the time when there are as many >>> or more robots than homo sapiens on the planet, at which point there may be >>> enough sufficiently intelligent robots to demand a space for themselves." >>> >>> You think that human/robot parity = artilect war... >>> >>> Why would this be the case? >>> >> No, I don't think it is necessarily the case, that's why I called it "A >> Home for Robots *or-else* Artilect War", simply that before there are >> more robots than humans, there isn't much opportunity for revolt. While >> some estimates of slaves in Rome put it up to 1/3 of the population, I >> think more realistic estimate is 1/5, similar to the height of slavery in >> America. However in Attica (athens) it seems at some point more than 90% >> of the population were slaves. >> I'm not sure how that would translate with all the smart phones and other >> things, >> I don't think slaves have ever successfully revolted. would have to look >> at the mechanics of emancipation. >> >> One Word: HAITI. >> >> That *REALLY* pissed-off a powerful bunch of people. >> >> >> >> >> And if all you care about is a "pseudo-realistic timeline" then why not >>> just say 2055 and be done with it? >>> >>> I've changed it to "realistic timeline" hope that makes it better. >> >> I take science fiction very seriously, >> I'd write a non-fiction, but fiction has longer life expectancy. >> >> Sincerely, >> Logan >> >> >>> >>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 4:03 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> By projecting homo-sapien birth and robot sales it seems they will >>>> reach parity around 2040, but since robots have life-expectancy about 1/7 >>>> of a human, population parity is likely closer to 2055. >>>> >>>> https://joylifecoop.wordpress.com/2016/01/03/robot-population-projection/ >>>> >>>> also I think that 2030's will be the pivotal decade of much AGI >>>> development. >>>> >>>> Wondering if anyone has any better estimates. >>>> >>>> Sincerely, >>>> Logan. >>>> >>>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/26973278-698fd9ee> | >>>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>>> >>> >>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/5037279-a88c7a6d> | >>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>> >> >> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/231448-cfc66781> | Modify >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >> <http://www.listbox.com> >> >> >> -- >> Doug Solomon >> >> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/5037279-a88c7a6d> | >> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >> <http://www.listbox.com> >> > > *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/26973278-698fd9ee> | > Modify > <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> > Your Subscription <http://www.listbox.com> > ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
