On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 1:04 AM, John Smith <[email protected]> wrote:
> Once we have human level AGI it has been shown that such an intelligence > will be capable of achieving near infinite intelligence after four years of > recursive self improvement (assuming things like Moores law holds up). > Even a single robot with such an intelligence would be capable of enslaving > humanity. > > Hi John, That is indeed a common belief I hear, however it doesn't seem any more realistic than "grey goo". Wheras "grey goo" is limited by the same energy inputs as water-based life-forms, thus couldn't really do any better than a virus/spore. Similarly any individual intelligence is limited by experience or "wisdom". So wheras with intelligence it could become very optimal for a certain set of functions, due to the near infinite variability of reality means it would simply make it overspecialized. A simple thought experiment demonstrates: an urban homo-sapien and a common chimpanzee in a jungle, even though the homo-sapien may be much more intelligent, the common chimpanzee is much more likely to succeed in the jungle environment due to greater experience with it. In any kind of confrontation the common chimpanzee would win due to greater strength and stamina, only if the chimpanzee was greatly outnumbered could it be subdued by humans. Of course typically humans would use technology/weapons to even the playing field, though that requires a vast supporting culture, of people that make the technology and teach about it's proper use. A single human can only realistically make a tool from a stone or a stick, it would typically take hundreds to make metal tools and the kind of infrastructure to clothe and arm a human to be able to defeat a chimpanzee "on their own". Considering that making a robot is even more difficult, with all the chip factories, sensor factories, and assembly, it would require hundreds or thousands of co-operating co-located robots with no opposition simply to repair themselves and make new host bodies (from scratch). "no man is an island" as the saying goes, even more so for robots. Even the chimpanzee has the jungle, which is many thousands of water-based life forms working together. -- Logan > > On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 12:41 AM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> > wrote: > >> Thanks Douglas, so it seems that in Haiti the ratio was 10:1 when they >> succefully gained their own freedom. So for a robot-initiated freedom >> revolt, we'd probably be waiting around till 2070 ish -- when (assuming >> trends continue) 70 times more robots are produced per year than humans. >> >> Though in local pockets the 10:1 ratio can be reached sooner, such as due >> to the whole divide between the rich and the poor, and rich and slightly >> less rich, as the upper middle class which may not be able to hire large >> staff of human servants, would instead hire robot servants. In their gated >> communities the ratio can certainly get to 10:1 or more much faster than >> waiting for a global revolt. Assuming they would be able to pass the turing >> test and successfully emulate people, might be able to do a replacement >> routine, where the gated community becomes 100% robot, while appearing to >> still have "slave masters" present. >> >> >> >> >> >> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 8:42 PM, Douglas Solomon <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >>> >>> On 01/03/2016 08:15 PM, Logan Streondj wrote: >>> >>> >>> >>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 5:24 PM, John Smith <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> Depends on your definition of robot. >>>> >>>> "For my novel “A home for robots or-else artilect war”, I need to >>>> come up with some at least pseudo-realistic timeline of when such a >>>> worldwide conflict could occur. >>>> >>>> Intuitively it would seem to be around the time when there are as many >>>> or more robots than homo sapiens on the planet, at which point there may be >>>> enough sufficiently intelligent robots to demand a space for themselves." >>>> >>>> You think that human/robot parity = artilect war... >>>> >>>> Why would this be the case? >>>> >>> No, I don't think it is necessarily the case, that's why I called it "A >>> Home for Robots *or-else* Artilect War", simply that before there are >>> more robots than humans, there isn't much opportunity for revolt. While >>> some estimates of slaves in Rome put it up to 1/3 of the population, I >>> think more realistic estimate is 1/5, similar to the height of slavery in >>> America. However in Attica (athens) it seems at some point more than 90% >>> of the population were slaves. >>> I'm not sure how that would translate with all the smart phones and >>> other things, >>> I don't think slaves have ever successfully revolted. would have to >>> look at the mechanics of emancipation. >>> >>> One Word: HAITI. >>> >>> That *REALLY* pissed-off a powerful bunch of people. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> And if all you care about is a "pseudo-realistic timeline" then why not >>>> just say 2055 and be done with it? >>>> >>>> I've changed it to "realistic timeline" hope that makes it better. >>> >>> I take science fiction very seriously, >>> I'd write a non-fiction, but fiction has longer life expectancy. >>> >>> Sincerely, >>> Logan >>> >>> >>>> >>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 4:03 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>>> By projecting homo-sapien birth and robot sales it seems they will >>>>> reach parity around 2040, but since robots have life-expectancy about 1/7 >>>>> of a human, population parity is likely closer to 2055. >>>>> >>>>> https://joylifecoop.wordpress.com/2016/01/03/robot-population-projection/ >>>>> >>>>> also I think that 2030's will be the pivotal decade of much AGI >>>>> development. >>>>> >>>>> Wondering if anyone has any better estimates. >>>>> >>>>> Sincerely, >>>>> Logan. >>>>> >>>>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>>>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/26973278-698fd9ee> | >>>>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>>>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>>>> >>>> >>>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/5037279-a88c7a6d> | >>>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>>> >>> >>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/231448-cfc66781> | >>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Doug Solomon >>> >>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/5037279-a88c7a6d> | >>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>> >> >> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/26973278-698fd9ee> | >> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >> <http://www.listbox.com> >> > > *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/5037279-a88c7a6d> | Modify > <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> > Your Subscription <http://www.listbox.com> > ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
